League Phase - 5 · 23 November 2026, 13:45 UTC

Neftchi Fergana vs Al-Hilal AFC Champions League Elite prediction

Istiqlol Stadium, Fergana

Our model says: Neftchi Fergana 0–3 Al-Hilal

The model makes it 7% Neftchi Fergana, 12% draw, 81% Al-Hilal — fair odds of 14.29, 8.33 and 1.23.

Most likely scoreline: 0-3 (8%).

Expected goals: Neftchi Fergana 0.94, Al-Hilal 3.78.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 85%, under 2.5: 15%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Al-Hilal are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Neftchi Fergana are 9th on 4 points from 4 games; Al-Hilal are 2nd on 9 points from 4 games — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
  • Neftchi Fergana are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Tractor Sazi.
  • Al-Hilal have won 3 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Neftchi Fergana vs Al-Hilal

60%
Both teams to score
85%
Over 2.5 goals
15%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Neftchi Fergana win Draw Al-Hilal win
  1. 0–38%
  2. 0–48%
  3. 1–38%
  4. 1–47%
  5. 0–26%
  6. 1–26%
  7. 0–56%

Scores read Neftchi Fergana first; the other scorelines share the remaining 50%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Hilal at 81%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Neftchi Fergana vs Al-Hilal

Neftchi Fergana

AFC Champions League Elite

  • D2-2away to Tractor Sazi2 November 2026
  • L1-2Al-Ittihad26 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Al-Nassr12 October 2026
  • W1-0Al Quwa Al Jawiya14 September 2026

Al-Hilal

AFC Champions League Elite

  • W2-0Shabab Al Ahli Dubai3 November 2026
  • L1-3away to Al Shamal27 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Al Sadd13 October 2026
  • W2-1Al-Gharafa15 September 2026

What these results say

  • Neftchi Fergana scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Neftchi Fergana failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Neftchi Fergana conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Al-Hilal scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Al-Hilal won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

AFC Champions League Elite table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Neftchi Fergana411257-24
2Al-Hilal430174+39

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Leading scorers: Neftchi Fergana and Al-Hilal

Neftchi Fergana

No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Al-Hilal

GoalsAssists

  • O. Watkins30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Neftchi Fergana Al-Hilal
0.63 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.2
2.47 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.82
0.94 Model expected goals (this match) 3.78

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Al-Hilal the highest probability at 81%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Neftchi Fergana against 3.78 for Al-Hilal. Neftchi Fergana's attack/defence rating is 0.63/2.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.2/0.82 for Al-Hilal.

How the model reaches 81% for Al-Hilal to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Hilal to win. Then home advantage takes away 9 points, Neftchi Fergana's ratings add 28 points and Al-Hilal's ratings add 25 points, which lands on the published 81%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage28%−9
  3. Neftchi Fergana's ratings56%+28
  4. Al-Hilal's ratings81%+25

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Neftchi Fergana

  • at Esteghlal FC7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 9%
  • vs Al-Ahli Jeddah9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 14%
  • at Al-Qadisiyah FC15 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 3%

Al-Hilal

  • at Al Kholood26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 74%
  • vs Abha3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 76%
  • vs Al Ain7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 64%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.