Al Ain
vs
Esteghlal FC
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Al Ain 1–0 Esteghlal FC
The model makes it 49% Al Ain, 27% draw, 24% Esteghlal FC — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Al Ain 1.68, Esteghlal FC 0.99.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Al Ain's rating is built from 33 UAE Pro League matches and Esteghlal FC's from 32 Persian Gulf Pro League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 305 matches.
Key facts
- Al Ain are top on 12 points from 4 games; Esteghlal FC are 3rd on 9 points from 4 games — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Al Ain are unbeaten in their last 4 games (4 won), most recently a 4-1 win away to Al-Ittihad.
- Esteghlal FC have won 3 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Al Shamal.
- Last 6 meetings: Esteghlal FC 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 20 May 2019, ended Al Ain 1–2 Esteghlal FC.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Ain vs Esteghlal FC
Has the model earned this number?
Al Ain at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al Ain vs Esteghlal FC
Al Ain
AFC Champions League Elite
- W4-1away to Al-Ittihad2 November 2026
- W2-1Tractor Sazi26 October 2026
- W4-1away to Al Quwa Al Jawiya12 October 2026
- W4-0Al-Nassr15 September 2026
Esteghlal FC
AFC Champions League Elite
- W1-0Al Shamal3 November 2026
- L0-2away to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai27 October 2026
- W2-1away to Al-Gharafa12 October 2026
- W3-0Al Sadd14 September 2026
What these results say
- Al Ain won every one of these 4 matches.
- Al Ain scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Al Ain had three goals or more.
- Esteghlal FC won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Esteghlal FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 12 |
| 3 | Esteghlal FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Ain vs Esteghlal FC
- 20 May 2019Al Ain 1–2 Esteghlal FCAFC Champions League
- 12 March 2019Esteghlal FC 1–1 Al AinAFC Champions League
- 12 March 2018Esteghlal FC 1–1 Al AinAFC Champions League
- 6 March 2018Al Ain 2–2 Esteghlal FCAFC Champions League
- 29 May 2017Al Ain 6–1 Esteghlal FCAFC Champions League
- 22 May 2017Esteghlal FC 1–0 Al AinAFC Champions League
Leading scorers: Al Ain and Esteghlal FC
Al Ain
GoalsAssists
- H. Rahimi50
- A. Romero23
Esteghlal FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Asani31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Ain the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Al Ain against 0.99 for Esteghlal FC. Al Ain's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.16 for Esteghlal FC.
How the model reaches 49% for Al Ain to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al Ain to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Al Ain's ratings add 2 points and Esteghlal FC's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage47%+10
- Both sides at this match's level45%−2
- Al Ain's ratings47%+2
- Esteghlal FC's ratings49%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al Ain at home · Esteghlal FC away
League matches only, this season — Al Ain in the Pro League, Esteghlal FC in the Persian Gulf Pro League; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Al Ain 7 in the Pro League, Esteghlal FC 11 in the Persian Gulf Pro League.
Esteghlal FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Al Ain have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al Ain
- at Al-Jazira3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 38%
- at Al-Hilal7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 15%
- vs Hatta SC12 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 72%
- at Sharjah FC24 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 49%
Esteghlal FC
- vs Sanat Naft28 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 69%
- at ZOB Ahan3 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 45%
- vs Neftchi Fergana7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 77%
- vs Shams Azar Qazvin12 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 64%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.