Clausura - 21 · 25 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Cerro Porteno vs Club Guarani Division Profesional - Clausura prediction

Estadio General Pablo Rojas

Our model says: Cerro Porteno 1–0 Club Guarani

The model makes it 42% Cerro Porteno, 30% draw, 28% Club Guarani — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Cerro Porteno 1.30, Club Guarani 0.96.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Cerro Porteno's rating is built from 41 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Club Guarani's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Cerro Porteno are 7th on 28 points from 19 games; Club Guarani are 5th on 31 points from 19 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
  • Cerro Porteno have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Deportivo Recoleta.
  • Club Guarani have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Olimpia.
  • Last 6 meetings: Cerro Porteno 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 September 2026, ended Club Guarani 1–1 Cerro Porteno.

More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Cerro Porteno vs Club Guarani

46%
Both teams to score
39%
Over 2.5 goals
61%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Cerro Porteno win Draw Club Guarani win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–013%
  3. 0–011%
  4. 0–19%
  5. 2–09%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Cerro Porteno first; the other scorelines share the remaining 29%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Cerro Porteno at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Cerro Porteno vs Club Guarani

Cerro Porteno

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • D1-1Deportivo Recoleta8 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Libertad Asuncion4 November 2026
  • L0-2Olimpia1 November 2026
  • W3-1away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo25 October 2026
  • D2-2Sportivo Ameliano18 October 2026

Club Guarani

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • L1-3Olimpia7 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Sportivo Ameliano4 November 2026
  • W1-02 de Mayo30 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Rubio NU23 October 2026
  • L0-2Nacional Asuncion17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Cerro Porteno scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cerro Porteno conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Club Guarani scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Club Guarani had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Cerro Porteno198472520+528
5Club Guarani198742117+431

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Cerro Porteno

Chance to finish in the top four · 6% today

Win 12%
Draw 2%
Defeat 0%

Club Guarani

Chance to finish in the top four · 27% today

Win 52%
Draw 27%
Defeat 11%

From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Cerro Porteno vs Club Guarani

  • 12 September 2026Club Guarani 1–1 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 11 May 2026Cerro Porteno 0–0 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 7 March 2026Club Guarani 0–2 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 2 November 2025Cerro Porteno 1–0 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 16 August 2025Club Guarani 3–4 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 10 May 2025Club Guarani 0–2 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura

Leading scorers: Cerro Porteno and Club Guarani

Cerro Porteno

GoalsAssists

  • P. Vegetti80
  • J. Morel50
  • D. Rodríguez45

Club Guarani

No player in Division Profesional - Clausura's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Club Guarani (fifth, with Cerro Porteno seventh), while our numbers lean to Cerro Porteno. Cerro Porteno rate 0.66 in attack and 1.31 in defence, Club Guarani 0.61 and 1.21 (lower is better in defence), so Cerro Porteno have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Cerro Porteno Club Guarani
0.66 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.61
1.31 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.21
1.30 Model expected goals (this match) 0.96

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Cerro Porteno the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Cerro Porteno against 0.96 for Club Guarani. Cerro Porteno's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.21 for Club Guarani.

Cerro Porteno carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.52 for Club Guarani. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 42% for Cerro Porteno to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cerro Porteno to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Cerro Porteno's ratings change nothing and Club Guarani's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 42%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−2
  4. Cerro Porteno's ratings42%±0
  5. Club Guarani's ratings42%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Cerro PortenoClub Guarani
19Matches19
8W 4D 7LRecord8W 7D 4L
25 1.3 per gameGoals scored21 1.1 per game
20 1.1 per gameGoals conceded17 0.9 per game
6 of 19Clean sheets9 of 19
3 of 19Failed to score3 of 19
1 of 5Penalties scored1 of 2
26 1.4 per gameYellow cards31 1.6 per game
1Red cards0
4-1-4-1 8×Usual shape4-1-4-1 10×

Cerro Porteno at home · Club Guarani away

10Played9
4W 3D 3LRecord5W 4D 0L
11–10Goals for – against9–3
4 of 10Clean sheets7 of 9

League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Cerro Porteno 19, Club Guarani 19.

Cerro Porteno scored 728142
Club Guarani conceded 044534

Cerro Porteno score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Club Guarani have let in 4 there.

Club Guarani scored 222435
Cerro Porteno conceded 322643

Club Guarani score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Cerro Porteno have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

Cerro Porteno

  • at Rubio NU29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 45%

Club Guarani

  • vs Sportivo Trinidense29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 39%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.