League Stage - 5 · 25 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Club Brugge KV vs Liverpool UEFA Champions League prediction

Jan Breydel Stadion, Brugge

Our model says: Club Brugge KV 2–1 Liverpool

The model makes it 40% Club Brugge KV, 24% draw, 36% Liverpool — fair odds of 2.50, 4.17 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Club Brugge KV 1.96, Liverpool 1.83.

Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Club Brugge KV's rating is built from 51 Jupiler Pro League matches and Liverpool's from 48 Premier League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 17 matches for Club Brugge KV, 16 for Liverpool. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 722 matches.

Key facts

  • Club Brugge KV are 9th on 9 points from 4 games; Liverpool are 8th on 9 points from 4 games — UEFA Champions League.
  • Club Brugge KV are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to PSV Eindhoven.
  • Liverpool have won 3 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Fenerbahçe.

More Champions League predictions

All Champions League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Club Brugge KV vs Liverpool

73%
Both teams to score
73%
Over 2.5 goals
27%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Club Brugge KV win Draw Liverpool win
  1. 1–19%
  2. 2–18%
  3. 1–27%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 3–15%
  6. 3–25%
  7. 1–35%

Scores read Club Brugge KV first; the other scorelines share the remaining 54%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Club Brugge KV at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Club Brugge KV vs Liverpool

Club Brugge KV

UEFA Champions League

  • W2-1away to PSV Eindhoven4 November 2026
  • W3-0Lens21 October 2026
  • W4-3away to Inter13 October 2026
  • L2-3Aston Villa8 September 2026

Liverpool

UEFA Champions League

  • L2-3away to Fenerbahçe4 November 2026
  • W4-3Villarreal20 October 2026
  • W6-3away to Lask Linz14 October 2026
  • W2-1Atletico Madrid9 September 2026

What these results say

  • Club Brugge KV scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Club Brugge KV had three goals or more.
  • Club Brugge KV won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Liverpool scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Liverpool conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Liverpool had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Club Brugge KV4301117+49
8Liverpool43011410+49

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Leading scorers: Club Brugge KV and Liverpool

Club Brugge KV

GoalsAssists

  • N. Tresoldi50

Liverpool

No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Liverpool (eighth, with Club Brugge KV ninth), while our numbers lean to Club Brugge KV. Club Brugge KV rate 1.52 in attack and 0.77 in defence, Liverpool 1.34 and 0.78 (lower is better in defence), so Club Brugge KV have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Club Brugge KV Liverpool
1.52 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.34
0.77 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.78
1.96 Model expected goals (this match) 1.83

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Club Brugge KV the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Club Brugge KV against 1.83 for Liverpool. Club Brugge KV's attack/defence rating is 1.52/0.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.34/0.78 for Liverpool.

Club Brugge KV carry a model rating of 7.19 against 7.12 for Liverpool. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 40% for Club Brugge KV to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Club Brugge KV to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Club Brugge KV's ratings take away 3 points and Liverpool's ratings take away 5 points, which lands on the published 40%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage47%+10
  3. Both sides at this match's level48%+1
  4. Club Brugge KV's ratings45%−3
  5. Liverpool's ratings40%−5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Club Brugge KVLiverpool
11Matches10
9W 1D 1LRecord5W 3D 2L
27 2.5 per gameGoals scored14 1.4 per game
9 0.8 per gameGoals conceded10 1.0 per game
5 of 11Clean sheets4 of 10
0 of 11Failed to score3 of 10
3 of 3Penalties scored1 of 1
18 1.6 per gameYellow cards27 2.7 per game
1Red cards1
4-2-3-1 10×Usual shape4-2-3-1 10×

Club Brugge KV at home · Liverpool away

6Played5
5W 1D 0LRecord4W 1D 0L
14–4Goals for – against10–4
3 of 6Clean sheets2 of 5

League matches only, this season — Club Brugge KV in the Jupiler Pro League, Liverpool in the Premier League; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Club Brugge KV 11 in the Jupiler Pro League, Liverpool 10 in the Premier League.

Club Brugge KV scored 3210443
Liverpool conceded 131131

Club Brugge KV score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); Liverpool have let in 1 there.

Liverpool scored 212423
Club Brugge KV conceded 013312

Liverpool score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Club Brugge KV have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Club Brugge KV

  • at Standard Liege29 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 54%
  • at Napoli8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 33%
  • vs KVC Westerlo13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 78%
  • at Union St. Gilloise20 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 31%

Liverpool

  • at Everton29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 45%
  • vs Sunderland2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 61%
  • at Chelsea5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 44%
  • vs FC Porto9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 35%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.