Regular Season - 9 · 25 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Ghazl El Mehalla vs Petrojet Premier League prediction

El-Gazel Stadium, El Mahalla El Kubra

Our model says: Ghazl El Mehalla 0–1 Petrojet

The model makes it 32% Ghazl El Mehalla, 30% draw, 38% Petrojet — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Ghazl El Mehalla 1.10, Petrojet 1.25.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Ghazl El Mehalla's rating is built from 41 Egyptian Premier League matches and Petrojet's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 627 matches.

Key facts

  • Ghazl El Mehalla are 17th on 7 points from 8 games; Petrojet are 11th on 9 points from 8 games — Premier League.
  • Ghazl El Mehalla have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Abu Qair Semad.
  • Petrojet are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Smouha SC.
  • Last 6 meetings: Petrojet 1 win to 0, 5 draws; the most recent, 23 April 2026, ended Ghazl El Mehalla 1–1 Petrojet.

More Egyptian Premier League predictions

All Egyptian Premier League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Ghazl El Mehalla vs Petrojet

48%
Both teams to score
42%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Ghazl El Mehalla win Draw Petrojet win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 0–111%
  3. 0–010%
  4. 1–010%
  5. 1–28%
  6. 0–27%
  7. 2–17%

Scores read Ghazl El Mehalla first; the other scorelines share the remaining 32%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Petrojet at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Ghazl El Mehalla vs Petrojet

Ghazl El Mehalla

Premier League

  • W1-0away to Abu Qair Semad31 October 2026
  • W2-1Al Ittihad Alexandria21 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Smouha SC12 October 2026
  • L0-1Zamalek SC16 September 2026
  • L1-3away to National Bank of Egypt7 September 2026

Petrojet

Premier League

  • D1-1Smouha SC31 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Ceramica Cleopatra21 October 2026
  • D2-2Wadi Degla13 October 2026
  • W2-1away to El Gouna FC16 September 2026
  • W2-1Al Masry7 September 2026

What these results say

  • Ghazl El Mehalla conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Petrojet conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Petrojet scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Petrojet.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Egypt Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Ghazl El Mehalla8215411-77
11Petrojet82331113-29

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Ghazl El Mehalla

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 29% today

Win 15%
Draw 30%
Defeat 38%

Petrojet

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today

Win 4%
Draw 10%
Defeat 16%

From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Ghazl El Mehalla vs Petrojet

  • 23 April 2026Ghazl El Mehalla 1–1 PetrojetPremier League
  • 22 September 2025Petrojet 0–0 Ghazl El MehallaPremier League
  • 5 March 2025Petrojet 2–1 Ghazl El MehallaPremier League
  • 6 March 2024Ghazl El Mehalla 2–2 PetrojetSecond League
  • 15 January 2024Ghazl El Mehalla 1–1 PetrojetSecond League
  • 24 May 2016Ghazl El Mehalla 1–1 PetrojetPremier League

Leading scorers: Ghazl El Mehalla and Petrojet

Ghazl El Mehalla

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Petrojet

GoalsAssists

  • Ahmed Bahbah31
  • Mostafa El Badry31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Ghazl El Mehalla Petrojet
0.48 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.7
1.66 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.04
1.10 Model expected goals (this match) 1.25

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Petrojet the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Ghazl El Mehalla against 1.25 for Petrojet. Ghazl El Mehalla's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/2.04 for Petrojet.

How the model reaches 38% for Petrojet to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 34% for Petrojet to win. Then home advantage takes away 1 point, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Ghazl El Mehalla's ratings add 1 point and Petrojet's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 38%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground34%
  2. Home advantage33%−1
  3. Both sides at this match's level34%+1
  4. Ghazl El Mehalla's ratings35%+1
  5. Petrojet's ratings38%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Ghazl El MehallaPetrojet
8Matches8
2W 1D 5LRecord2W 3D 3L
4 0.5 per gameGoals scored11 1.4 per game
11 1.4 per gameGoals conceded13 1.6 per game
2 of 8Clean sheets0 of 8
5 of 8Failed to score1 of 8
–Penalties scored1 of 1
13 1.6 per gameYellow cards10 1.3 per game
4-2-3-1 7×Usual shape4-4-2 5×

Ghazl El Mehalla at home · Petrojet away

4Played4
1W 1D 2LRecord1W 1D 2L
2–5Goals for – against4–6
1 of 4Clean sheets0 of 4

League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: Ghazl El Mehalla 8, Petrojet 8.

Ghazl El Mehalla scored 102100
Petrojet conceded 123221

Ghazl El Mehalla score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Petrojet have let in 3 there.

Petrojet scored 111224
Ghazl El Mehalla conceded 013223

Petrojet score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Ghazl El Mehalla have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Ghazl El Mehalla

  • vs Al Ahly10 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 19%
  • at Al Masry16 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 29%
  • vs El Mokawloon22 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 27%
  • at El Gouna FC27 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 32%
  • vs Masr5 Jan · Premier Leaguewin 29%

Petrojet

  • vs Pyramids FC9 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 19%
  • at Masr14 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 32%
  • vs Future FC24 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 37%
  • at Olympic El Qanah29 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 37%
  • vs Enppi5 Jan · Premier Leaguewin 39%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.