Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
vs
Al-Qadisiyah FC
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1–2 Al-Qadisiyah FC
The model makes it 30% Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 26% draw, 44% Al-Qadisiyah FC — fair odds of 3.33, 3.85 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.39, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.79.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Al-Qadisiyah FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's rating is built from 33 UAE Pro League matches and Al-Qadisiyah FC's from 46 Saudi Pro League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 305 matches.
Key facts
- Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are 4th on 9 points from 4 games; Al-Qadisiyah FC are 5th on 8 points from 4 games — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Al-Hilal.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC are unbeaten in their last 4 games (2 won), most recently a 5-0 win away to Al-Gharafa.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Qadisiyah FC at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
AFC Champions League Elite
- L0-2away to Al-Hilal3 November 2026
- W2-0Esteghlal FC27 October 2026
- W2-1away to Al-Ittihad13 October 2026
- W1-0Tractor Sazi14 September 2026
Al-Qadisiyah FC
AFC Champions League Elite
- W5-0away to Al-Gharafa2 November 2026
- D1-1Al Sadd26 October 2026
- D1-1away to Pakhtakor12 October 2026
- W2-1Al-Wasl FC14 September 2026
What these results say
- Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai had two goals or fewer.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Qadisiyah FC
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
GoalsAssists
- S. Azmoun22
Al-Qadisiyah FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Quiñones41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (fourth, with Al-Qadisiyah FC fifth), while our numbers lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC. Al-Qadisiyah FC rate 1.23 in attack and 1.00 in defence, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.77 and 1.14 (lower is better in defence), so Al-Qadisiyah FC have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai against 1.79 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.23/1 for Al-Qadisiyah FC.
How the model reaches 44% for Al-Qadisiyah FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Qadisiyah FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 9 points, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's ratings add 7 points and Al-Qadisiyah FC's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage28%−9
- Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's ratings35%+7
- Al-Qadisiyah FC's ratings44%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home · Al-Qadisiyah FC away
League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 7, Al-Qadisiyah FC 12.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Al-Qadisiyah FC have let in 5 there.
Al-Qadisiyah FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- at Al Nasr4 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 43%
- at Al-Ahli Jeddah8 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 21%
- at Baniyas SC12 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 57%
- vs Al Wahda FC25 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 48%
Al-Qadisiyah FC
- vs Al-Fateh26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 75%
- at Al-Hazm3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 66%
- vs Al Shamal7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 81%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.