Dunfermline sit 5th in the Championship on 12 points from 7 matches, having scored 6 and conceded 4. On the model's scale they rate 0.54 in attack and 1.68 in defence (1.00 = an average top-flight side, lower defence is better), against Championship averages of 0.47 and 2.12: above the division's average at both ends. Across their last 5 league matches they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, most recently beating Morton 1-0 away. That is 1.71 points a match, scoring 0.86 and conceding 0.57 per game across 3 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat. That leaves them 10 points behind Stenhousemuir at the top, in a table of 10. Among the 10 rated sides in the division that is the 2nd-best attack and the 2nd-best defence. They scored in 4 of those 5 and kept 3 clean sheets. Next they travel to Ayr Utd in the Championship on 10 October 2026, a match the model gives them 44%.
Model rating
How the model rates this team from its recent expected-goals output, on one scale across every league we cover: 1.00 is an average top-flight side, so clubs in lower divisions read below it — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Last 5 | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12:2 | +10 | WWWWW | 22 |
| 2 | Raith Rovers | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:5 | +6 | LWWDL | 14 |
| 3 | Livingston | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12:7 | +5 | LLWDW | 13 |
| 4 | Partick | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5:2 | +3 | DDWLD | 12 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6:4 | +2 | LWDWW | 12 |
| 6 | Arbroath | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6:10 | -4 | WDLLW | 11 |
| 7 | Inverness CT | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:9 | 0 | LLWDW | 10 |
| 8 | Ayr Utd | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7:9 | -2 | DLLWL | 8 |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4:13 | -9 | DWLLL | 4 |
| 10 | Morton | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4:15 | -11 | DLLLL | 1 |
- Promotion to Premiership
- Promotion play-offs
- Relegation
Dunfermline sit 5 of 10, as the table stands today. Every competition we cover.
Recent league form
- W1-0away to Morton19 September 2026
- W2-0Queen's Park12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Arbroath5 September 2026
- W1-0Raith Rovers28 August 2026
- L0-2away to Livingston22 August 2026
Last 5 league matches, most recent first.
Next match: Dunfermline vs Ayr Utd
Dunfermline travel to Ayr Utd at Somerset Park, Ayr on 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC. The model makes it 44% Dunfermline, 29% draw and 27% Ayr Utd, with a most likely scoreline of 0-1. It projects 1.66 expected goals for Dunfermline against 1.04. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Full preview and model analysis for Dunfermline vs Ayr Utd
Recent meetings with Ayr Utd
- 8 August 2026Dunfermline 1–1 Ayr UtdChampionship
- 7 April 2026Ayr Utd 0–3 DunfermlineChampionship
- 20 December 2025Dunfermline 2–3 Ayr UtdChampionship
- 31 October 2025Ayr Utd 0–1 DunfermlineChampionship
- 23 September 2025Dunfermline 0–1 Ayr UtdChampionship
The last 5 meetings between the two, most recent first.