Waalwijk
vs
Den Bosch
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Waalwijk 1–0 Den Bosch
The model makes it 52% Waalwijk, 26% draw, 22% Den Bosch — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Waalwijk 1.75, Den Bosch 0.97.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,736 settled matches.
Edge to Waalwijk: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Waalwijk's rating is built from 55 Eerste Divisie matches and Den Bosch's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Waalwijk are 12th on 16 points from 13 games; Den Bosch are 13th on 15 points from 12 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Waalwijk have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Almere City FC.
- Den Bosch are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to MVV.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Waalwijk 2–3 Den Bosch.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Waalwijk vs Den Bosch
Has the model earned this number?
Waalwijk at 52%: of 1,310 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.0% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Waalwijk vs Den Bosch
Waalwijk
Eerste Divisie
- L1-2Almere City FC30 October 2026
- D1-1away to De Graafschap23 October 2026
- D1-1FC Volendam18 October 2026
- L0-3away to Heracles9 October 2026
- D1-1Emmen3 October 2026
Den Bosch
Eerste Divisie
- D2-2MVV23 October 2026
- W2-1FC OSS16 October 2026
- W1-0away to Jong AZ9 October 2026
- D1-1Dordrecht3 October 2026
- L0-1away to De Graafschap27 September 2026
What these results say
- Waalwijk did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Waalwijk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Waalwijk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Den Bosch scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Den Bosch conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Waalwijk | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 16 |
| 13 | Den Bosch | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Waalwijk vs Den Bosch
- 21 March 2026Waalwijk 2–3 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 3 October 2025Den Bosch 2–2 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
- 6 July 2024Waalwijk 2–3 Den BoschFriendlies Clubs
- 1 February 2019Waalwijk 2–1 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 24 August 2018Den Bosch 2–3 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
- 23 February 2018Den Bosch 0–0 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Waalwijk and Den Bosch
Waalwijk
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Den Bosch
GoalsAssists
- S. Karlsson Grach60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Waalwijk carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.23 for Den Bosch.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Waalwijk and 0.97 for Den Bosch.
Waalwijk rate 0.60 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Den Bosch rate 0.52 and 1.79.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Waalwijk a 0.1% chance of the title and Den Bosch 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Waalwijk the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Waalwijk against 0.97 for Den Bosch. Waalwijk's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.79 for Den Bosch.
How the model reaches 52% for Waalwijk to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Waalwijk to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Waalwijk's ratings add 5 points and Den Bosch's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Waalwijk's ratings48%+5
- Den Bosch's ratings52%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Waalwijk at home · Den Bosch away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Waalwijk 13, Den Bosch 12.
Waalwijk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Den Bosch have let in 4 there.
Den Bosch score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Waalwijk have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Waalwijk
- at FC Eindhoven21 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
- at VVV Venlo27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 26%
- vs Jong AZ4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 51%
- at Jong Utrecht11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
Den Bosch
- vs VVV Venlo20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 34%
- at NAC Breda27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 23%
- vs Jong Ajax4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 47%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.