VVV Venlo
vs
FC Eindhoven
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: VVV Venlo 2–1 FC Eindhoven
The model makes it 59% VVV Venlo, 22% draw, 19% FC Eindhoven — fair odds of 1.69, 4.55 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: VVV Venlo 2.27, FC Eindhoven 1.08.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,736 settled matches.
Edge to VVV Venlo: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. VVV Venlo's rating is built from 50 Eerste Divisie matches and FC Eindhoven's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- VVV Venlo are 2nd on 25 points from 12 games; FC Eindhoven are 19th on 11 points from 13 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- VVV Venlo are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-2 win away to Dordrecht.
- FC Eindhoven have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Helmond Sport.
- Last 6 meetings: VVV Venlo 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 7 February 2026, ended VVV Venlo 1–0 FC Eindhoven.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven
Has the model earned this number?
VVV Venlo at 59%: of 1,310 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.0% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven
VVV Venlo
Eerste Divisie
- W4-2away to Dordrecht24 October 2026
- D4-4Jong AZ16 October 2026
- W3-0away to Jong Ajax9 October 2026
- W2-0Roda4 October 2026
- L2-3away to FC Volendam26 September 2026
FC Eindhoven
Eerste Divisie
- L2-3away to Helmond Sport30 October 2026
- L1-2Jong PSV U2123 October 2026
- L0-1Vitesse16 October 2026
- L0-3away to Almere City FC9 October 2026
- D2-2De Graafschap3 October 2026
What these results say
- VVV Venlo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for VVV Venlo had three goals or more.
- FC Eindhoven did not win any of these 5 matches.
- FC Eindhoven conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Eindhoven had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | VVV Venlo | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 20 | +14 | 25 |
| 19 | FC Eindhoven | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven
- 7 February 2026VVV Venlo 1–0 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
- 24 October 2025FC Eindhoven 0–1 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
- 22 March 2025VVV Venlo 2–2 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
- 13 December 2024FC Eindhoven 1–3 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
- 23 February 2024VVV Venlo 2–2 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
- 10 November 2023FC Eindhoven 0–2 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: VVV Venlo and FC Eindhoven
VVV Venlo
GoalsAssists
- L. Schmidt51
FC Eindhoven
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The two sides
VVV Venlo carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.21 for FC Eindhoven.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.27 goals for VVV Venlo and 1.08 for FC Eindhoven.
VVV Venlo rate 0.72 in attack and 1.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Eindhoven rate 0.54 and 1.94.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives VVV Venlo a 4.1% chance of the title and FC Eindhoven 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VVV Venlo the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.27 expected goals for VVV Venlo against 1.08 for FC Eindhoven. VVV Venlo's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.94 for FC Eindhoven.
How the model reaches 59% for VVV Venlo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for VVV Venlo to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, VVV Venlo's ratings add 6 points and FC Eindhoven's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 59%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- VVV Venlo's ratings52%+6
- FC Eindhoven's ratings59%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
VVV Venlo at home · FC Eindhoven away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: VVV Venlo 12, FC Eindhoven 13.
VVV Venlo score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); FC Eindhoven have let in 3 there.
FC Eindhoven score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); VVV Venlo have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
VVV Venlo
- at Den Bosch20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
- vs Waalwijk27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 48%
- at Vitesse4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 33%
FC Eindhoven
- vs Waalwijk21 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
- at FC Volendam29 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 20%
- vs Roda6 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 34%
- at FC OSS11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 26%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.