The model rates their attack at 0.70× the league average and their defence at 1.26× goals conceded, where 1 is average and a lower defensive figure is better — below average at both ends by these numbers. Next they host Estonia in the UEFA Nations League on 26 September 2026, a match the model gives them 33%.
Model rating
How the model rates this team from its recent expected-goals output, relative to the league average — how the ratings are built.
Next match: Iceland vs Estonia
Iceland host Estonia on 26 September 2026, 16:00 UTC. The model makes it 33% Iceland, 30% draw and 37% Estonia, with a most likely scoreline of 0-1. It projects 1.18 expected goals for Iceland against 1.29. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Full preview and model analysis for Iceland vs Estonia