The model rates their attack at 1.23× the league average and their defence at 1.08× goals conceded, where 1 is average and a lower defensive figure is better. Next they host Luxembourg in the UEFA Nations League on 26 September 2026, a match the model gives them 42%.
Model rating
How the model rates this team from its recent expected-goals output, relative to the league average — how the ratings are built.
Attacking strength1.23× league avg
Defensive solidity1.08× goals conceded
Next match: Bulgaria vs Luxembourg
Bulgaria host Luxembourg on 26 September 2026, 16:00 UTC. The model makes it 42% Bulgaria, 29% draw and 29% Luxembourg, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0. It projects 1.53 expected goals for Bulgaria against 1.05. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Full preview and model analysis for Bulgaria vs Luxembourg