Ayr Utd sit 8th in the Championship on 8 points from 8 matches, having scored 7 and conceded 9. On the model's scale they rate 0.38 in attack and 2.55 in defence (1.00 = an average top-flight side, lower defence is better), against Championship averages of 0.47 and 2.12: below the division's average at both ends. Across their last 5 league matches they have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, most recently losing to Stenhousemuir 0-1 at home. That is 1.00 points a match, scoring 0.88 and conceding 1.13 per game across 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats. That leaves them 14 points behind Stenhousemuir at the top, in a table of 10. Among the 10 rated sides in the division that is the 8th-best attack and the 8th-best defence. They scored in 3 of those 5 and kept 1 clean sheet. Next they travel to Livingston in the Championship on 3 October 2026, a match the model gives them 20%.
Model rating
How the model rates this team from its recent expected-goals output, on one scale across every league we cover: 1.00 is an average top-flight side, so clubs in lower divisions read below it — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Last 5 | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12:2 | +10 | WWWWW | 22 |
| 2 | Raith Rovers | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:5 | +6 | LWWDL | 14 |
| 3 | Livingston | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12:7 | +5 | LLWDW | 13 |
| 4 | Partick | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5:2 | +3 | DDWLD | 12 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6:4 | +2 | LWDWW | 12 |
| 6 | Arbroath | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6:10 | -4 | WDLLW | 11 |
| 7 | Inverness CT | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:9 | 0 | LLWDW | 10 |
| 8 | Ayr Utd | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7:9 | -2 | DLLWL | 8 |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4:13 | -9 | DWLLL | 4 |
| 10 | Morton | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4:15 | -11 | DLLLL | 1 |
- Promotion to Premiership
- Promotion play-offs
- Relegation
Ayr Utd sit 8 of 10, as the table stands today. Every competition we cover.
Recent league form
- L0-1Stenhousemuir25 September 2026
- W2-0away to Queen's Park18 September 2026
- L1-3Inverness CT12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Partick5 September 2026
- D1-1Morton29 August 2026
Last 5 league matches, most recent first.
Next match: Ayr Utd vs Livingston
Ayr Utd travel to Livingston at The Home of the Set Fare Arena, Livingston on 3 October 2026, 14:00 UTC. The model makes it 20% Ayr Utd, 25% draw and 55% Livingston, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0. It projects 0.90 expected goals for Ayr Utd against 2.24. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Full preview and model analysis for Ayr Utd vs Livingston
Recent meetings with Livingston
- 18 April 2025Livingston 5–0 Ayr UtdChampionship
- 22 February 2025Ayr Utd 1–2 LivingstonChampionship
- 21 December 2024Livingston 0–1 Ayr UtdChampionship
- 19 October 2024Ayr Utd 1–2 LivingstonChampionship
- 19 August 2023Livingston 2–0 Ayr UtdLeague Cup
The last 5 meetings between the two, most recent first.