League B - 6 · 17 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Hungary vs Northern Ireland UEFA Nations League prediction

Our model says: Hungary 1–0 Northern Ireland

The model makes it 40% Hungary, 33% draw, 27% Northern Ireland — fair odds of 2.50, 3.03 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Hungary 1.06, Northern Ireland 0.79.

Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 28%, under 2.5: 72%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,630 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 3 November 2026. Hungary's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Northern Ireland's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.

Key facts

  • Hungary are 2nd on 7 points from 4 games; Northern Ireland are top on 8 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League B.
  • Hungary are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Ukraine.
  • Northern Ireland are unbeaten in their last 4 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Georgia.
  • Last 2 meetings: Hungary 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 September 2026, ended Northern Ireland 0–0 Hungary.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Hungary vs Northern Ireland

37%
Both teams to score
28%
Over 2.5 goals
72%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Hungary win Draw Northern Ireland win
  1. 0–016%
  2. 1–016%
  3. 1–114%
  4. 0–112%
  5. 2–09%
  6. 2–17%
  7. 1–25%

Scores read Hungary first; the other scorelines share the remaining 21%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Hungary at 40%: of 2,625 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.8% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Hungary vs Northern Ireland

Hungary

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-1away to Ukraine5 October 2026
  • W1-0Georgia2 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Northern Ireland28 September 2026
  • L0-1Ukraine25 September 2026

Northern Ireland

UEFA Nations League

  • D0-0Georgia5 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Ukraine2 October 2026
  • D0-0Hungary28 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Georgia25 September 2026

What these results say

  • 3 of these 4 matches for Hungary had two goals or fewer.
  • Northern Ireland went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Northern Ireland kept a clean sheet in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Northern Ireland had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Hungary421132+17
1Northern Ireland422040+48

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Hungary vs Northern Ireland

  • 28 September 2026Northern Ireland 0–0 HungaryUEFA Nations League
  • 29 March 2022Northern Ireland 0–1 HungaryFriendlies
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Hungary Northern Ireland
1.05 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.88
0.72 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.75
1.06 Model expected goals (this match) 0.79

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Hungary the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Hungary against 0.79 for Northern Ireland. Hungary's attack/defence rating is 1.05/0.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/0.75 for Northern Ireland.

Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.

How the model reaches 40% for Hungary to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Hungary to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Hungary's ratings add 2 points and Northern Ireland's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 40%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage38%+2
  3. Both sides at this match's level35%−3
  4. Hungary's ratings37%+2
  5. Northern Ireland's ratings40%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.