Lithuania
vs
Liechtenstein
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Lithuania 1–0 Liechtenstein
The model makes it 53% Lithuania, 30% draw, 17% Liechtenstein — fair odds of 1.89, 3.33 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (19%).
Expected goals: Lithuania 1.40, Liechtenstein 0.55.
Both teams to score: 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 60% of the time, over 1,870 settled matches.
One-sided: Lithuania are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 2 November 2026. Lithuania's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Liechtenstein's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.
Key facts
- Lithuania are 2nd on 4 points from 3 games; Liechtenstein are bottom on 1 point from 2 games — UEFA Nations League, League D.
- Lithuania have won 1 of their last 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Azerbaijan.
- Liechtenstein have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Gibraltar.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lithuania vs Liechtenstein
Has the model earned this number?
Lithuania at 53%: of 1,421 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.7% came in (average 55.5%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lithuania vs Liechtenstein
Lithuania
UEFA Nations League
- L0-1away to Azerbaijan4 October 2026
- D1-1Azerbaijan27 September 2026
- W2-0away to Liechtenstein24 September 2026
Liechtenstein
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0away to Azerbaijan1 October 2026
- L0-2Lithuania24 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lithuania | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 3 | Liechtenstein | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lithuania vs Liechtenstein
- 24 September 2026Liechtenstein 0–2 LithuaniaUEFA Nations League
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lithuania the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Lithuania against 0.55 for Liechtenstein. Lithuania's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.36/1.73 for Liechtenstein.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 53% for Lithuania to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Lithuania to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 4 points, Lithuania's ratings add 10 points and Liechtenstein's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level34%−4
- Lithuania's ratings44%+10
- Liechtenstein's ratings53%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.