League B - 6 · 17 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Rep. Of Ireland vs Kosovo UEFA Nations League prediction

Our model says: Rep. Of Ireland 1–0 Kosovo

The model makes it 44% Rep. Of Ireland, 30% draw, 26% Kosovo — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).

Expected goals: Rep. Of Ireland 1.30, Kosovo 0.87.

Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,630 settled matches.

Edge to Rep. Of Ireland: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 3 November 2026. Rep. Of Ireland's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Kosovo's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.

Key facts

  • Rep. Of Ireland are 3rd on 5 points from 4 games; Kosovo are 2nd on 5 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League B.
  • Rep. Of Ireland are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Israel.
  • Kosovo are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Austria.

More Nations League predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Rep. Of Ireland vs Kosovo

43%
Both teams to score
37%
Over 2.5 goals
63%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Rep. Of Ireland win Draw Kosovo win
  1. 1–014%
  2. 1–114%
  3. 0–012%
  4. 2–010%
  5. 0–19%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Rep. Of Ireland first; the other scorelines share the remaining 27%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Rep. Of Ireland at 44%: of 2,625 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.8% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Rep. Of Ireland vs Kosovo

Rep. Of Ireland

UEFA Nations League

  • D1-1Israel4 October 2026
  • D2-2Austria1 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Israel27 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Kosovo24 September 2026

Kosovo

UEFA Nations League

  • D1-1Austria4 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Israel1 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Austria27 September 2026
  • W1-0Rep. Of Ireland24 September 2026

What these results say

  • Rep. Of Ireland failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Rep. Of Ireland scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Rep. Of Ireland conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Kosovo failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Kosovo scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Kosovo had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Rep. Of Ireland412164+25
2Kosovo412134-15

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Rep. Of Ireland vs Kosovo

  • 24 September 2026Kosovo 1–0 Rep. Of IrelandUEFA Nations League

Leading scorers: Rep. Of Ireland and Kosovo

Rep. Of Ireland

GoalsAssists

  • T. Parrott40

Kosovo

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Rep. Of Ireland Kosovo
1.02 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.87
0.8 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.94
1.30 Model expected goals (this match) 0.87

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Rep. Of Ireland the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Rep. Of Ireland against 0.87 for Kosovo. Rep. Of Ireland's attack/defence rating is 1.02/0.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/0.94 for Kosovo.

Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.

How the model reaches 44% for Rep. Of Ireland to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Rep. Of Ireland to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Rep. Of Ireland's ratings add 4 points and Kosovo's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 44%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage38%+2
  3. Both sides at this match's level36%−2
  4. Rep. Of Ireland's ratings40%+4
  5. Kosovo's ratings44%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.