Cyprus
vs
Montenegro
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Cyprus 0–1 Montenegro
The model makes it 30% Cyprus, 31% draw, 39% Montenegro — fair odds of 3.33, 3.23 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Cyprus 1.01, Montenegro 1.23.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,143 settled matches.
Edge to Montenegro: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 1 November 2026. Cyprus's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Montenegro's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.
Key facts
- Cyprus are 2nd on 7 points from 4 games; Montenegro are top on 10 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League C.
- Cyprus are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Latvia.
- Montenegro are unbeaten in their last 4 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Armenia.
- Last 4 meetings: Montenegro 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 September 2026, ended Montenegro 2–1 Cyprus.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cyprus vs Montenegro
Has the model earned this number?
Montenegro at 39%: of 4,156 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.5% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cyprus vs Montenegro
Cyprus
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1Latvia5 October 2026
- W2-0Armenia2 October 2026
- D0-0away to Latvia28 September 2026
- L1-2away to Montenegro25 September 2026
Montenegro
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0Armenia5 October 2026
- W2-1away to Latvia2 October 2026
- W3-2away to Armenia28 September 2026
- W2-1Cyprus25 September 2026
What these results say
- Cyprus scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Montenegro went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Montenegro won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Montenegro scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cyprus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 1 | Montenegro | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cyprus vs Montenegro
- 25 September 2026Montenegro 2–1 CyprusUEFA Nations League
- 17 November 2020Montenegro 4–0 CyprusUEFA Nations League
- 5 September 2020Cyprus 0–2 MontenegroUEFA Nations League
- 23 March 2018Cyprus 0–0 MontenegroFriendlies
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Montenegro the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Cyprus against 1.23 for Montenegro. Cyprus's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.02 for Montenegro.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 39% for Montenegro to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Montenegro to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Cyprus's ratings add 3 points and Montenegro's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Both sides at this match's level33%−1
- Cyprus's ratings36%+3
- Montenegro's ratings39%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.