Finland
vs
San Marino
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Finland 2–0 San Marino
The model makes it 77% Finland, 15% draw, 8% San Marino — fair odds of 1.30, 6.67 and 12.50.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Finland 2.86, San Marino 0.62.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 60% of the time, over 1,809 settled matches.
One-sided: Finland are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 1 November 2026. Finland's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; San Marino's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.
Key facts
- Finland are 3rd on 7 points from 4 games; San Marino are bottom on 0 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League C.
- Finland have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Belarus.
- San Marino have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Albania.
- Last 3 meetings: Finland 3 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 26 September 2026, ended San Marino 0–7 Finland.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Finland vs San Marino
Has the model earned this number?
Finland at 77%: of 429 settled 65–100% forecasts, 66.2% came in (average 73.2%). Read it as optimistic. The full record.
Form going into Finland vs San Marino
Finland
UEFA Nations League
- L0-1away to Belarus6 October 2026
- W2-1Albania3 October 2026
- D0-0Belarus29 September 2026
- W7-0away to San Marino26 September 2026
San Marino
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2away to Albania6 October 2026
- L0-4away to Belarus3 October 2026
- L0-3Albania29 September 2026
- L0-7Finland26 September 2026
What these results say
- San Marino did not win any of these 4 matches.
- San Marino conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for San Marino had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Finland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 7 |
| 4 | San Marino | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 16 | -15 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Finland vs San Marino
- 26 September 2026San Marino 0–7 FinlandUEFA Nations League
- 20 November 2023San Marino 1–2 FinlandEuro Championship - Qualification
- 19 June 2023Finland 6–0 San MarinoEuro Championship - Qualification
Leading scorers: Finland and San Marino
Finland
GoalsAssists
- L. Walta41
- J. Pohjanpalo30
San Marino
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Finland the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.86 expected goals for Finland against 0.62 for San Marino. Finland's attack/defence rating is 0.99/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.14 for San Marino.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 77% for Finland to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Finland to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Finland's ratings add 20 points and San Marino's ratings add 19 points, which lands on the published 77%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Finland's ratings58%+20
- San Marino's ratings77%+19
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.