League A - 6 · 16 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Greece vs Serbia UEFA Nations League prediction

Our model says: Greece 1–0 Serbia

The model makes it 51% Greece, 27% draw, 22% Serbia — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).

Expected goals: Greece 1.62, Serbia 0.88.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 60% of the time, over 1,870 settled matches.

Edge to Greece: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 2 November 2026. Greece's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Serbia's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.

Key facts

  • Greece are 2nd on 8 points from 4 games; Serbia are bottom on 0 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League A.
  • Greece are unbeaten in their last 4 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Germany.
  • Serbia have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Netherlands.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Greece vs Serbia

48%
Both teams to score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Greece win Draw Serbia win
  1. 1–013%
  2. 1–112%
  3. 2–011%
  4. 2–19%
  5. 0–09%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 3–06%

Scores read Greece first; the other scorelines share the remaining 33%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Greece at 51%: of 1,421 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.7% came in (average 55.5%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Greece vs Serbia

Greece

UEFA Nations League

  • D0-0Germany4 October 2026
  • D2-2Netherlands1 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Germany27 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Serbia24 September 2026

Serbia

UEFA Nations League

  • L1-2away to Netherlands4 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Germany1 October 2026
  • L1-2Netherlands27 September 2026
  • L1-2Greece24 September 2026

What these results say

  • Greece went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Greece scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Serbia did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Serbia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Serbia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Greece422053+28
4Serbia400438-50

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Greece vs Serbia

  • 24 September 2026Serbia 1–2 GreeceUEFA Nations League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Greece Serbia
1.1 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.93
0.76 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.09
1.62 Model expected goals (this match) 0.88

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Greece the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Greece against 0.88 for Serbia. Greece's attack/defence rating is 1.1/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.09 for Serbia.

Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.

How the model reaches 51% for Greece to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Greece to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Greece's ratings add 6 points and Serbia's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 51%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage38%+2
  3. Both sides at this match's level37%−1
  4. Greece's ratings43%+6
  5. Serbia's ratings51%+8

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.