Switzerland
vs
Scotland
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Switzerland 2–0 Scotland
The model makes it 63% Switzerland, 22% draw, 15% Scotland — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Switzerland 2.20, Scotland 0.84.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 60% of the time, over 1,870 settled matches.
One-sided: Switzerland are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 2 November 2026. Switzerland's rating is built from its last 4 matches; Scotland's from its last 3 matches.
Key facts
- Switzerland are top on 12 points from 4 games; Scotland are 3rd on 4 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League B.
- Switzerland are unbeaten in their last 4 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to North Macedonia.
- Scotland have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Slovenia.
- Last 2 meetings: Switzerland 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 September 2026, ended Scotland 0–3 Switzerland.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Switzerland vs Scotland
Has the model earned this number?
Switzerland at 63%: of 1,421 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.7% came in (average 55.5%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Switzerland vs Scotland
Switzerland
UEFA Nations League
- W3-0North Macedonia6 October 2026
- W2-1Slovenia3 October 2026
- W3-0away to Scotland29 September 2026
- W3-0away to North Macedonia26 September 2026
Scotland
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2Slovenia6 October 2026
- W2-0away to North Macedonia3 October 2026
- L0-3Switzerland29 September 2026
- D0-0away to Slovenia26 September 2026
What these results say
- Switzerland won every one of these 4 matches.
- Switzerland scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Switzerland had three goals or more.
- Scotland failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 12 |
| 3 | Scotland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Switzerland vs Scotland
- 29 September 2026Scotland 0–3 SwitzerlandUEFA Nations League
- 19 June 2024Scotland 1–1 SwitzerlandEuro Championship
Leading scorers: Switzerland and Scotland
Switzerland
GoalsAssists
- Z. Amdouni31
- D. Ndoye23
Scotland
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Switzerland the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Switzerland against 0.84 for Scotland. Switzerland's attack/defence rating is 1.55/0.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/1.05 for Scotland.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 63% for Switzerland to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Switzerland to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Switzerland's ratings add 12 points and Scotland's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 63%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Switzerland's ratings50%+12
- Scotland's ratings63%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.