League D - 6 · 16 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Gibraltar vs Malta UEFA Nations League prediction

Our model says: Gibraltar 1–0 Malta

The model makes it 39% Gibraltar, 31% draw, 30% Malta — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Gibraltar 1.17, Malta 0.95.

Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,168 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 2 November 2026. Gibraltar's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Malta's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.

Key facts

  • Gibraltar are 2nd on 2 points from 2 games; Malta are top on 7 points from 3 games — UEFA Nations League, League D.
  • Gibraltar are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Liechtenstein.
  • Malta are unbeaten in their last 3 games (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Andorra.
  • Last 3 meetings: Malta 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 October 2026, ended Malta 1–1 Gibraltar.

More Nations League predictions

All Nations League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Gibraltar vs Malta

43%
Both teams to score
36%
Over 2.5 goals
64%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Gibraltar win Draw Malta win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–013%
  3. 0–013%
  4. 0–111%
  5. 2–08%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Gibraltar first; the other scorelines share the remaining 27%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Gibraltar at 39%: of 4,265 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.6% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Gibraltar vs Malta

Gibraltar

UEFA Nations League

  • D1-1away to Malta1 October 2026
  • D0-0Andorra27 September 2026

Malta

UEFA Nations League

  • W1-0Andorra4 October 2026
  • D1-1Gibraltar1 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Andorra24 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Gibraltar20201102
1Malta321042+27

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Gibraltar vs Malta

  • 1 October 2026Malta 1–1 GibraltarUEFA Nations League
  • 6 September 2023Malta 1–0 GibraltarFriendlies
  • 7 October 2020Malta 2–0 GibraltarFriendlies
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Gibraltar Malta
0.7 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.66
1.15 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.24
1.17 Model expected goals (this match) 0.95

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Gibraltar the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Gibraltar against 0.95 for Malta. Gibraltar's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.24 for Malta.

Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.

How the model reaches 39% for Gibraltar to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Gibraltar to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Gibraltar's ratings add 1 point and Malta's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage38%+2
  3. Both sides at this match's level36%−2
  4. Gibraltar's ratings37%+1
  5. Malta's ratings39%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.