League B - 6 · 16 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

North Macedonia vs Slovenia UEFA Nations League prediction

Our model says: North Macedonia 0–1 Slovenia

The model makes it 18% North Macedonia, 29% draw, 53% Slovenia — fair odds of 5.56, 3.45 and 1.89.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (17%).

Expected goals: North Macedonia 0.64, Slovenia 1.45.

Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 60% of the time, over 1,870 settled matches.

One-sided: Slovenia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Key facts

  • North Macedonia are bottom on 0 points from 4 games; Slovenia are 2nd on 7 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League B.
  • North Macedonia have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Switzerland.
  • Slovenia have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Scotland.
  • Last 4 meetings: level at 1 win each, 2 draws; the most recent, 29 September 2026, ended Slovenia 2–0 North Macedonia.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: North Macedonia vs Slovenia

37%
Both teams to score
35%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

North Macedonia win Draw Slovenia win
  1. 0–117%
  2. 0–213%
  3. 0–013%
  4. 1–112%
  5. 1–28%
  6. 1–07%
  7. 0–36%

Scores read North Macedonia first; the other scorelines share the remaining 23%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Slovenia at 53%: of 1,421 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.7% came in (average 55.5%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into North Macedonia vs Slovenia

North Macedonia

UEFA Nations League

  • L0-3away to Switzerland6 October 2026
  • L0-2Scotland3 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Slovenia29 September 2026
  • L0-3Switzerland26 September 2026

Slovenia

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-1away to Scotland6 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Switzerland3 October 2026
  • W2-0North Macedonia29 September 2026
  • D0-0Scotland26 September 2026

What these results say

  • North Macedonia did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • North Macedonia failed to score in every one of these 4 matches.
  • North Macedonia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Slovenia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4North Macedonia4004010-100
2Slovenia421153+27

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: North Macedonia vs Slovenia

  • 29 September 2026Slovenia 2–0 North MacedoniaUEFA Nations League
  • 1 June 2021North Macedonia 1–1 SloveniaFriendlies
  • 10 October 2019North Macedonia 2–1 SloveniaEuro Championship
  • 24 March 2019Slovenia 1–1 North MacedoniaEuro Championship

Leading scorers: North Macedonia and Slovenia

North Macedonia

No league goals yet this season.

Slovenia

GoalsAssists

  • A. Matko22

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

North Macedonia Slovenia
0.58 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.99
1.17 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.82
0.64 Model expected goals (this match) 1.45

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Slovenia the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.64 expected goals for North Macedonia against 1.45 for Slovenia. North Macedonia's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/0.82 for Slovenia.

Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.

How the model reaches 53% for Slovenia to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Slovenia to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, North Macedonia's ratings add 9 points and Slovenia's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 53%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage34%−2
  3. Both sides at this match's level32%−2
  4. North Macedonia's ratings41%+9
  5. Slovenia's ratings53%+12

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.