League B - 6 · 17 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Israel vs Austria UEFA Nations League prediction

Our model says: Israel 0–1 Austria

The model makes it 25% Israel, 27% draw, 48% Austria — fair odds of 4.00, 3.70 and 2.08.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Israel 1.01, Austria 1.60.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,630 settled matches.

Edge to Austria: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 3 November 2026. Israel's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Austria's from its last 4 matches.

Key facts

  • Israel are bottom on 2 points from 4 games; Austria are top on 8 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League B.
  • Israel have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Rep. Of Ireland.
  • Austria are unbeaten in their last 4 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Kosovo.
  • Last 5 meetings: Austria 3 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 September 2026, ended Austria 3–1 Israel.

More Nations League predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Israel vs Austria

51%
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Israel win Draw Austria win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 0–111%
  3. 1–210%
  4. 0–29%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 1–07%
  7. 2–16%

Scores read Israel first; the other scorelines share the remaining 37%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Austria at 48%: of 2,625 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.8% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Israel vs Austria

Israel

UEFA Nations League

  • D1-1away to Rep. Of Ireland4 October 2026
  • D0-0Kosovo1 October 2026
  • L0-3Rep. Of Ireland27 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Austria24 September 2026

Austria

UEFA Nations League

  • D1-1away to Kosovo4 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Rep. Of Ireland1 October 2026
  • W3-1Kosovo27 September 2026
  • W3-1Israel24 September 2026

What these results say

  • Israel did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Israel conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Austria went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Austria scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Austria conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Israel402227-52
1Austria422095+48

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Israel vs Austria

  • 24 September 2026Austria 3–1 IsraelUEFA Nations League
  • 12 November 2021Austria 4–2 IsraelWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
  • 4 September 2021Israel 5–2 AustriaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
  • 10 October 2019Austria 3–1 IsraelEuro Championship
  • 24 March 2019Israel 4–2 AustriaEuro Championship

The full Israel vs Austria record →

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Israel Austria
0.8 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.21
1.06 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.93
1.01 Model expected goals (this match) 1.60

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Austria the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Israel against 1.60 for Austria. Israel's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.21/0.93 for Austria.

Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.

How the model reaches 48% for Austria to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Austria to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Israel's ratings add 6 points and Austria's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 48%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage34%−2
  3. Israel's ratings40%+6
  4. Austria's ratings48%+8

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.