Poland
vs
Sweden
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Poland 1–0 Sweden
The model makes it 49% Poland, 26% draw, 25% Sweden — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Poland 1.72, Sweden 1.08.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,630 settled matches.
Edge to Poland: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 3 November 2026. Poland's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Sweden's from its last 4 matches.
Key facts
- Poland are 3rd on 4 points from 4 games; Sweden are top on 10 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League B.
- Poland have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Bosnia & Herzegovina.
- Sweden are unbeaten in their last 4 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Romania.
- Last 4 meetings: Sweden 3 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 September 2026, ended Sweden 3–1 Poland.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Poland vs Sweden
Has the model earned this number?
Poland at 49%: of 2,625 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.8% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Poland vs Sweden
Poland
UEFA Nations League
- L0-1away to Bosnia & Herzegovina5 October 2026
- W6-0Romania2 October 2026
- L1-3away to Sweden28 September 2026
- D0-0Bosnia & Herzegovina25 September 2026
Sweden
UEFA Nations League
- W1-0away to Romania5 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bosnia & Herzegovina2 October 2026
- W3-1Poland28 September 2026
- W2-1Romania25 September 2026
What these results say
- Poland failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sweden went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Sweden scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sweden won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Poland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 4 |
| 1 | Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Poland vs Sweden
- 28 September 2026Sweden 3–1 PolandUEFA Nations League
- 31 March 2026Sweden 3–2 PolandWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 29 March 2022Poland 2–0 SwedenWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 23 June 2021Sweden 3–2 PolandEuro Championship
Leading scorers: Poland and Sweden
Poland
GoalsAssists
- R. Lewandowski30
Sweden
GoalsAssists
- V. Gyökeres40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Poland the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Poland against 1.08 for Sweden. Poland's attack/defence rating is 1.17/0.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.09 for Sweden.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 49% for Poland to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Poland to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Poland's ratings add 5 points and Sweden's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Poland's ratings43%+5
- Sweden's ratings49%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.