League C - 6 · 16 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Estonia vs Bulgaria UEFA Nations League prediction

Our model says: Estonia 1–0 Bulgaria

The model makes it 36% Estonia, 35% draw, 29% Bulgaria — fair odds of 2.78, 2.86 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Estonia 0.93, Bulgaria 0.77.

Both teams to score: 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 24%, under 2.5: 76%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,168 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 2 November 2026. Estonia's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Bulgaria's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.

Key facts

  • Estonia are 2nd on 6 points from 4 games; Bulgaria are 3rd on 4 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League C.
  • Estonia are unbeaten in their last 4 games (1 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Iceland.
  • Bulgaria have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Luxembourg.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Estonia vs Bulgaria

33%
Both teams to score
24%
Over 2.5 goals
76%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Estonia win Draw Bulgaria win
  1. 0–019%
  2. 1–016%
  3. 1–114%
  4. 0–113%
  5. 2–08%
  6. 2–16%
  7. 0–25%

Scores read Estonia first; the other scorelines share the remaining 18%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Estonia at 36%: of 4,265 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.6% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Estonia vs Bulgaria

Estonia

UEFA Nations League

  • D0-0Iceland6 October 2026
  • W1-0Luxembourg3 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Bulgaria29 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Iceland26 September 2026

Bulgaria

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-0away to Luxembourg6 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Iceland3 October 2026
  • D0-0Estonia29 September 2026
  • L1-2Luxembourg26 September 2026

What these results say

  • Estonia went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Estonia had two goals or fewer.
  • Estonia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Bulgaria failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Estonia413021+16
3Bulgaria411235-24

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Estonia vs Bulgaria

  • 29 September 2026Bulgaria 0–0 EstoniaUEFA Nations League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Estonia Bulgaria
0.59 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.7
0.88 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.17
0.93 Model expected goals (this match) 0.77

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Estonia the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Estonia against 0.77 for Bulgaria. Estonia's attack/defence rating is 0.59/0.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.17 for Bulgaria.

Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.

How the model reaches 36% for Estonia to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Estonia to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 4 points, Estonia's ratings change nothing and Bulgaria's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 36%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage38%+2
  3. Both sides at this match's level34%−4
  4. Estonia's ratings34%±0
  5. Bulgaria's ratings36%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.