League A - 6 · 17 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Denmark vs Norway UEFA Nations League prediction

Our model says: Denmark 1–2 Norway

The model makes it 36% Denmark, 27% draw, 37% Norway — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Denmark 1.43, Norway 1.47.

Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,179 settled matches.

A tight game: Denmark and Norway are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 3 November 2026. Denmark's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Norway's from its last 5 matches.

Key facts

  • Denmark are 2nd on 6 points from 4 games; Norway are bottom on 3 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League A.
  • Denmark have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Wales.
  • Norway are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Portugal.
  • Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 September 2026, ended Norway 3–2 Denmark.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Denmark vs Norway

59%
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Denmark win Draw Norway win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 2–18%
  4. 0–18%
  5. 1–07%
  6. 0–06%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read Denmark first; the other scorelines share the remaining 44%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Norway at 37%: of 4,299 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.6% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Denmark vs Norway

Denmark

UEFA Nations League

  • W1-0away to Wales4 October 2026
  • L2-4Portugal1 October 2026
  • W2-0Wales27 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Norway24 September 2026

Norway

UEFA Nations League

  • L1-2away to Portugal4 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Wales1 October 2026
  • L1-2Portugal27 September 2026
  • W3-2Denmark24 September 2026

What these results say

  • Denmark scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Norway scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Norway conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Norway had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Denmark42027706
4Norway410368-23

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Denmark vs Norway

  • 24 September 2026Norway 3–2 DenmarkUEFA Nations League
  • 8 June 2024Denmark 3–1 NorwayFriendlies

Leading scorers: Denmark and Norway

Denmark

GoalsAssists

  • R. Højlund30

Norway

GoalsAssists

  • E. Haaland30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Denmark Norway
1.31 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.53
0.77 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.81
1.43 Model expected goals (this match) 1.47

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Norway the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Denmark against 1.47 for Norway. Denmark's attack/defence rating is 1.31/0.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.53/0.81 for Norway.

Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.

How the model reaches 37% for Norway to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Norway to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Denmark's ratings add 1 point and Norway's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 37%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage34%−2
  3. Denmark's ratings35%+1
  4. Norway's ratings37%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.