Derby sit 23rd in the Championship on 10 points from 15 matches, having scored 14 and conceded 30. On the model's scale they rate 0.63 in attack and 1.56 in defence (1.00 = an average top-flight side, lower defence is better), against Championship averages of 0.75 and 1.36: below the division's average at both ends. Across their last 5 league matches they have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, most recently beating Bolton 3-1 at home. That is 0.67 points a match, scoring 0.93 and conceding 2.00 per game across 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats. That leaves them 19 points behind Birmingham at the top, in a table of 24. Among the 24 rated sides in the division that is the 20th-best attack and the 20th-best defence. They scored in 3 of those 5 and kept 0 clean sheets. Next they travel to Southampton in the Championship on 21 November 2026, a match the model gives them 14%.
Model rating
One scale across every league we cover: 1.00 is an average top-flight side — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Last 5 | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 28:14 | +14 | WLWWW | 29 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30:19 | +11 | DWWLD | 29 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:18 | +6 | WDWWW | 29 |
| 4 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:18 | +8 | DWWWD | 28 |
| 5 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23:15 | +8 | WDWDW | 28 |
| 6 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 22:18 | +4 | LLWLL | 26 |
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29:15 | +14 | DWWDL | 24 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24:18 | +6 | LWLDW | 24 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 37:23 | +14 | WLLDL | 23 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21:19 | +2 | WDWWL | 22 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20:18 | +2 | DWDWL | 22 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 32:24 | +8 | LWWWW | 21 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22:23 | -1 | LWLLW | 21 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 27:27 | 0 | DWLDW | 18 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 18:20 | -2 | WLLWD | 18 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 23:27 | -4 | DLWLL | 18 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16:24 | -8 | LDWLL | 18 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20:29 | -9 | DLLWL | 17 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13:23 | -10 | LLLLW | 17 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13:23 | -10 | WLLWD | 15 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15:26 | -11 | DWLLL | 15 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 22:31 | -9 | LLDDL | 10 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14:30 | -16 | LDLLW | 10 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13:30 | -17 | LDLLW | 8 |
- Promotion to Premier League
- Championship play-offs
- Relegation
Derby sit 23 of 24, as the table stands today. Every competition we cover.
Position by match
Derby have been between 13th and 23rd after each of their 15 Championship matches; 23rd now. Rebuilt from the season's results after each of Derby's matches (x-axis); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Recent league form
- W3-1Bolton6 November 2026
- L0-4Norwich3 November 2026
- L1-4away to Millwall31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Sheffield Utd24 October 2026
- L0-1Stoke City17 October 2026
Last 5 league matches, most recent first.
Next match: Derby vs Southampton
Derby travel to Southampton at St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton on 21 November 2026, 12:30 UTC. The model makes it 14% Derby, 22% draw and 64% Southampton, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0. It projects 0.78 expected goals for Derby against 2.21. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Full preview and model analysis for Derby vs Southampton
Recent meetings with Southampton
- 11 April 2026Southampton 2–1 DerbyChampionship
- 4 October 2025Derby 1–1 SouthamptonChampionship
- 16 January 2019Southampton 4–4 DerbyFA Cup
- 5 January 2019Derby 2–2 SouthamptonFA Cup
- 18 February 2012Southampton 4–0 DerbyChampionship
The last 5 meetings between the two, most recent first.
Other results that matter to Derby
-
Sheffield Utd v Watford · 21 November 2026
Derby fans want Sheffield Utd to win: that leaves Derby's risk of a bottom-three finish at 45.9%, against 50.5% if Watford win (46.8% today).
Sheffield Utd win45.9%−0.9Draw46.7%−0.1Watford win50.5%+3.7 -
Millwall v QPR · 21 November 2026
Derby fans want QPR to win: that leaves Derby's risk of a bottom-three finish at 44.4%, against 47.8% after a draw (46.8% today).
Millwall win47.6%+0.8Draw47.8%+1.0QPR win44.4%−2.4 -
Burnley v Birmingham · 25 November 2026
Derby fans want Birmingham to win: that leaves Derby's risk of a bottom-three finish at 46.2%, against 48.3% if Burnley win (46.8% today).
Burnley win48.3%+1.5Draw46.4%−0.4Birmingham win46.2%−0.6
From our season simulation, reading only the runs in which each result happened. A match is listed when it moves Derby's figure by 2 points or more and both halves of the runs agree on which result helps.
Upcoming fixtures
Recent results
Head-to-head records
- Derby vs Bolton4W 1D 2L7 meetings
- Derby vs Millwall0W 3D 4L7 meetings
- Derby vs Norwich2W 1D 4L7 meetings
- Derby vs Sheffield Utd2W 1D 4L7 meetings
- Derby vs Stoke City3W 1D 3L7 meetings
- Derby vs Birmingham1W 2D 3L6 meetings
- Derby vs Burnley0W 4D 2L6 meetings
- Derby vs Cardiff1W 1D 4L6 meetings
- Derby vs Charlton3W 1D 2L6 meetings
- Derby vs Portsmouth3W 3D 0L6 meetings
Derby's record against each club, over the meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026. All head-to-head records.