Derby
vs
Wrexham
Championship prediction
Our model says: Derby 1–0 Wrexham
The model makes it 38% Derby, 29% draw, 33% Wrexham — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Derby 1.45, Wrexham 1.25.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Derby vs Wrexham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Derby at 38% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Derby vs Wrexham
Derby
- D1-1away to Burnley19 September 2026
- L1-2Birmingham12 September 2026
- L0-1West Brom9 September 2026
- L0-3away to West Ham5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Portsmouth1 September 2026
Wrexham
- W2-1Southampton19 September 2026
- L0-6away to West Ham11 September 2026
- D1-1Burnley8 September 2026
- D0-0away to Swansea5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Millwall2 September 2026
What these results say
- Derby failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Derby conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Derby | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Derby vs Wrexham
- 4 January 2026Derby 1–2 WrexhamChampionship
- 27 September 2025Wrexham 1–1 DerbyChampionship
Leading scorers: Derby and Wrexham
Derby
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Wrexham
- K. Moore3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Derby carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.53 for Wrexham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Derby and 1.25 for Wrexham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Derby rate 0.68 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wrexham rate 0.74 and 1.41.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Wrexham, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Derby a 0% chance of the title and Wrexham 0.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Derby the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Derby against 1.25 for Wrexham. Derby's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.41 for Wrexham.