10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Derby vs Wrexham Championship prediction & result

Pride Park, Derby
Referee: Matt Donohue, England
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Derby 1-1 Wrexham.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Derby, 28% draw, 32% Wrexham — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Derby at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Derby4%Draw92%Wrexham4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Sondre Langas
5'
⚽Sammie Szmodicsassist: Mohammed Fuseini
9'
15'
🔁Josh Windassout: Oliver Rathbone
Ryan Hedges
52'
64'
🔁Lewis O'Brienout: Sam Smith
64'
🔁Issa Kaboreout: Danny Imray
71'
Oliver Rathbone
🔁Mohammed Fuseiniout: Henrik Wendel Meister
72'
🔁Sammie Szmodicsout: Rhian Brewster
72'
Alex Mowatt
74'
🔁Bobby Clarkout: Oscar Fraulo
84'
🔁Carlton Morrisout: Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
84'
85'
🔁Zak Vynerout: George Dobson
85'
🔁Jacques Ekomiéout: Ryan·Longman
88'
⚽Oliver Rathboneassist: Kieffer Moore
90+1'
Kieffer Moore

Match stats — Derby vs Wrexham

45%Possession55%
10Shots13
4On target3
1Corners9
0.56xG1.32

Goals against chances

Derby1 from 0.56 xGabout what the chances were worth
Wrexham1 from 1.32 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Derby 4-2-3-1
  • 31J. VickersG
  • 23J. WardD
  • 6S. LangåsD
  • 28D. SandersonD
  • 26R. HedgesD
  • 20A. MowattM
  • 4D. OzohM
  • 16M. FuseiniM
  • 11S. SzmodicsM
  • 8B. ClarkM
  • 9C. MorrisF
Substitutes
  • 13F. BilbijaM
  • 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
  • 10R. BrewsterF
  • 29O. FrauloM
  • 19H. MeisterF
  • 24R. NyambeD
  • 12R. O'DonnellG
  • 15L. SalvesenF
  • 27L. TravisM
Coach: J. Eustace
Wrexham 3-4-2-1
  • 22A. PattersonG
  • 26Z. VynerD
  • 5D. HyamD
  • 6J. WorrallD
  • 12I. KaboréM
  • 8B. WhitemanM
  • 27L. O'BrienM
  • 3J. EkomiéM
  • 10J. WindassM
  • 17C. O'HareM
  • 19K. MooreF
Substitutes
  • 28S. SmithF
  • 21D. WardG
  • 20O. RathboneM
  • 47R. LongmanM
  • 34A. JamesD
  • 30Daniel Edward Peter ImrayD
  • 15G. DobsonM
  • 11B. CadamarteriF
  • 50Samuel ChesworthF
Coach: P. Parkinson

Form going into Derby vs Wrexham

Derby

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Burnley19 September 2026
  • L1-2Birmingham12 September 2026
  • L0-1West Brom9 September 2026
  • L0-3away to West Ham5 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Portsmouth1 September 2026

Wrexham

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Southampton19 September 2026
  • L0-6away to West Ham11 September 2026
  • D1-1Burnley8 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Swansea5 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Millwall2 September 2026

What these results say

  • Derby failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Derby conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
23Derby152491430-1610
15Wrexham154651820-218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Derby vs Wrexham

  • 4 January 2026Derby 1–2 WrexhamChampionship
  • 27 September 2025Wrexham 1–1 DerbyChampionship

Leading scorers: Derby and Wrexham

Derby

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Wrexham

GoalsAssists

  • K. Moore52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Derby and Wrexham drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Derby at 40% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Sammie Szmodics 9' for Derby, Oliver Rathbone 88' for Wrexham. On expected goals it finished 0.56–1.32.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Derby a 26.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 22.2% after a win, 27.5% after a draw, 30.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 27.5%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.

For Wrexham the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 9.2% going in: 6.2% after a win, 8.8% after a draw, 11.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 8.8%.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Derby v Wrexham has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 40% / 28% / 32%: the biggest move is Derby's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Derby win40%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Wrexham win32%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.