Derby
vs
Norwich
Championship prediction
Our model says: Derby 2–1 Norwich
The model makes it 36% Derby, 28% draw, 36% Norwich — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Derby 1.40, Norwich 1.39.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 916 settled matches.
A tight game: Derby and Norwich are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Derby's rating is built from 57 Championship matches and Norwich's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,245 matches.
Key facts
- Derby are 23rd on 6 points from 11 games; Norwich are 21st on 9 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Derby have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Stoke City.
- Norwich have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Portsmouth.
- Last 6 meetings: Norwich 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 April 2026, ended Norwich 2–1 Derby.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Derby vs Norwich
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Derby at 36% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 3,359 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Derby vs Norwich
Derby
- L0-1Stoke City17 October 2026
- L1-4away to QPR14 October 2026
- D1-1Wrexham10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Burnley19 September 2026
- L1-2Birmingham12 September 2026
Norwich
- L0-1Portsmouth17 October 2026
- L0-1Southampton14 October 2026
- L1-2away to Swansea10 October 2026
- L3-4Bolton20 September 2026
- L3-4away to Middlesbrough12 September 2026
What these results say
- Derby did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Derby conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Derby scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Norwich did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Norwich conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Derby | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 6 |
| 21 | Norwich | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Derby vs Norwich
Derby and Norwich have met 6 times in the records we hold, Norwich has won 3 of them to Derby's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Norwich won the last one 2–1 on 21 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Norwich | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 13 goals, an average of 2.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 21 Apr 2026
ChampionshipNorwich 2–1 Derby - 21 Oct 2025
ChampionshipDerby 1–0 Norwich - 8 Feb 2025
ChampionshipNorwich 1–1 Derby - 28 Sep 2024
ChampionshipDerby 2–3 Norwich - 10 Apr 2021
ChampionshipDerby 0–1 Norwich - 3 Oct 2020
ChampionshipNorwich 0–1 Derby
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Derby and Norwich
Derby
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Norwich
GoalsAssists
- M. Touré50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Derby carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.56 for Norwich. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Derby and 1.39 for Norwich. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Derby rate 0.64 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Norwich rate 0.80 and 1.45.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Norwich, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Derby a 0% chance of the title and Norwich 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Derby the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Derby against 1.39 for Norwich. Derby's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.45 for Norwich.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Derby at home · Norwich away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
DerbyNorwich
Derby are 23rd after 11 Championship matches (between 13th and 23rd so far); Norwich are 21st after 11 (between 9th and 23rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Derby 11, Norwich 11.
Derby score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Norwich have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Derby
- vs Bolton6 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
- at Southampton21 Nov · Championshipwin 16%
- at Wolves24 Nov · Championshipwin 20%
Norwich
- at Bristol City7 Nov · Championshipwin 35%
- vs Cardiff21 Nov · Championshipwin 43%
- vs QPR24 Nov · Championshipwin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.