Millwall
vs
Derby
Championship prediction
Our model says: Millwall 1–0 Derby
The model makes it 51% Millwall, 26% draw, 23% Derby — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Millwall 1.72, Derby 0.97.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Millwall: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Millwall are 12th on 15 points from 11 games; Derby are 23rd on 6 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Millwall have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Lincoln.
- Derby have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Stoke City.
- Last 6 meetings: Millwall 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 10 March 2026, ended Millwall 1–0 Derby.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Millwall vs Derby
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Millwall at 51% here. Across 3,865 settled matches (as of 17 October 2026), 927 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Millwall vs Derby
Millwall
- D2-2Lincoln17 October 2026
- L0-1Swansea13 October 2026
- W1-0away to Preston10 October 2026
- D2-2West Ham19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Middlesbrough15 September 2026
Derby
- L0-1Stoke City17 October 2026
- L1-4away to QPR14 October 2026
- D1-1Wrexham10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Burnley19 September 2026
- L1-2Birmingham12 September 2026
What these results say
- Millwall failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Millwall scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Millwall conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Derby did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Derby conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Derby scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Millwall | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 15 |
| 23 | Derby | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Millwall
Chance to finish in the top four · 15% today
Derby
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 37% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Derby vs Millwall
Derby and Millwall have met 6 times in the records we hold, Millwall has won 3 of them to Derby's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
Millwall won the last one 1–0 on 10 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Millwall | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 11 goals, an average of 1.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 10 Mar 2026
ChampionshipMillwall 1–0 Derby - 10 Dec 2025
ChampionshipDerby 1–1 Millwall - 22 Feb 2025
ChampionshipDerby 0–1 Millwall - 19 Oct 2024
ChampionshipMillwall 1–1 Derby - 23 Feb 2022
ChampionshipDerby 1–2 Millwall - 6 Nov 2021
ChampionshipMillwall 1–1 Derby
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Millwall and Derby
Millwall
GoalsAssists
- L. Dykes41
- C. Neghli32
Derby
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Millwall carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.44 for Derby. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Millwall and 0.97 for Derby. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Millwall rate 0.78 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Derby rate 0.64 and 1.46.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Millwall a 1.6% chance of the title and Derby 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,938 correct results out of 4,046 settled predictions (48%), with 405 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Millwall the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Millwall against 0.97 for Derby. Millwall's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.46 for Derby.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Millwall at home · Derby away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
MillwallDerby
Millwall are 11th after 11 Championship matches (between 1st and 11th so far); Derby are 23rd after 11 (between 13th and 23rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Millwall 10, Derby 11.
Millwall score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Derby have let in 5 there.
Derby score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Millwall have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Millwall
- at Birmingham3 Nov · Championshipwin 27%
- at West Brom7 Nov · Championshipwin 32%
- vs QPR21 Nov · Championshipwin 46%
- at Stoke City25 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
Derby
- vs Norwich3 Nov · Championshipwin 36%
- vs Bolton6 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
- at Southampton21 Nov · Championshipwin 16%
- at Wolves24 Nov · Championshipwin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.