Derby
vs
West Brom
Championship prediction
The model makes it 40% Derby, 24% draw, 36% West Brom — fair odds of 2.50, 4.17 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Derby 1.64, West Brom 1.55.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Derby
- D2-2Cardiff22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Charlton15 August 2026
West Brom
- W3-1Burnley23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Norwich15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Derby | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 |
| 2 | West Brom | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Derby vs West Brom
- 23 January 2026Derby 1–1 West BromChampionship
- 13 September 2025West Brom 0–1 DerbyChampionship
- 12 August 2025West Brom 1–1 DerbyLeague Cup
- 21 April 2025West Brom 1–3 DerbyChampionship
- 26 December 2024Derby 2–1 West BromChampionship
- 23 August 2022Derby 1–0 West BromLeague Cup
Leading scorers
Derby
No league goals recorded yet.
West Brom
- I. Price2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Derby carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.6 for West Brom. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Derby L-D; West Brom W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Derby and 1.55 for West Brom. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Derby rate 0.75 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; West Brom rate 0.69 and 1.16.
That points to 62% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour West Brom, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 601 correct results out of 1266 settled predictions (47%), with 115 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Derby the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Derby against 1.55 for West Brom. Derby's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.16 for West Brom.