Derby vs West Brom Championship prediction & result
Final score: Derby 0-1 West Brom.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Derby, 28% draw, 32% West Brom — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Derby at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Derby vs West Brom
Line-ups
- 1J. Widell ZetterströmG
- 28D. SandersonD
- 6S. LangåsD
- 44E. CashinD
- 18C. TaylorD
- 20A. MowattM
- 4D. OzohM
- 26R. HedgesM
- 8B. ClarkM
- 16M. FuseiniM
- 11S. SzmodicsF
- 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
- 29O. FrauloM
- 22M. JohnstonD
- 19H. MeisterF
- 24R. NyambeD
- 15L. SalvesenF
- 31J. VickersG
- 23J. WardM
- 42Raymond OfforD
- 1M. O’LearyG
- 18B. PereiraD
- 3N. PhillipsD
- 6G. CampbellD
- 4C. StylesD
- 29Harry WhitwellM
- 8J. MolumbyM
- 17O. DiakitéM
- 21I. PriceM
- 19A. HeggebøF
- 11J. MorganF
- 42B. CisseG
- 15Tobias Christopher CollyerM
- 25N. GalvesD
- 2C. MephamD
- 7F. MyhreM
- 20R. NzingoulaM
- 9B. StewartF
- 22C. TownsendD
- 26K. TundeF
Form going into Derby vs West Brom
Derby
- L0-3away to West Ham5 September 2026
West Brom
- W1-0Watford5 September 2026
- D1-1Charlton2 September 2026
- L1-3away to Middlesbrough29 August 2026
- W3-1Burnley23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Norwich15 August 2026
What these results say
- West Brom scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- West Brom conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for West Brom.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 |
| 4 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Derby vs West Brom
- 9 September 2026Derby 0–1 West BromChampionship
- 23 January 2026Derby 1–1 West BromChampionship
- 13 September 2025West Brom 0–1 DerbyChampionship
- 12 August 2025West Brom 1–1 DerbyLeague Cup
- 21 April 2025West Brom 1–3 DerbyChampionship
- 26 December 2024Derby 2–1 West BromChampionship
Leading scorers: Derby and West Brom
Derby
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
West Brom
GoalsAssists
- J. Morgan33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.