Derby
vs
Stoke City
Championship prediction
Our model says: Derby 1–0 Stoke City
The model makes it 39% Derby, 29% draw, 32% Stoke City — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Derby 1.43, Stoke City 1.18.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Derby are 22nd on 5 points from 8 games; Stoke City are 7th on 13 points from 8 games — Championship.
- Derby are without a win in 4, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Burnley.
- Stoke City are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Sheffield Utd.
- Last 6 meetings: Derby 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 April 2026, ended Derby 2–0 Stoke City.
All Championship predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Derby vs Stoke City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Derby at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Derby vs Stoke City
Derby
- D1-1away to Burnley19 September 2026
- L1-2Birmingham12 September 2026
- L0-1West Brom9 September 2026
- L0-3away to West Ham5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Portsmouth1 September 2026
Stoke City
- W2-1Sheffield Utd19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Watford12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Cardiff8 September 2026
- W4-0Charlton5 September 2026
- W1-0Norwich1 September 2026
What these results say
- Derby failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Derby conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stoke City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Stoke City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stoke City won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Derby | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 |
| 7 | Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Derby vs Stoke City
- 6 April 2026Derby 2–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 9 August 2025Stoke City 3–1 DerbyChampionship
- 3 May 2025Derby 0–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 2 November 2024Stoke City 2–1 DerbyChampionship
- 22 July 2023Derby 3–0 Stoke CityFriendlies Clubs
- 30 December 2021Stoke City 1–2 DerbyChampionship
Leading scorers: Derby and Stoke City
Derby
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Stoke City
- E. Galbraith3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Derby carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.51 for Stoke City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Derby and 1.18 for Stoke City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Derby rate 0.68 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stoke City rate 0.70 and 1.39.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Stoke City, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Derby a 0% chance of the title and Stoke City 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Derby the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Derby against 1.18 for Stoke City. Derby's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.39 for Stoke City.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Derby at home · Stoke City away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Derby 8, Stoke City 8.
Derby score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Stoke City have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Derby
- at Sheffield Utd24 Oct · Championshipwin 29%
- at Millwall31 Oct · Championshipwin 26%
- vs Norwich3 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
Stoke City
- vs Bristol City24 Oct · Championshipwin 40%
- vs Preston31 Oct · Championshipwin 45%
- at Blackburn3 Nov · Championshipwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.