12 September 2026, 11:30 UTC

Derby vs Birmingham Championship prediction & result

Pride Park, Derby
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Derby 1-2 Birmingham.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Derby, 29% draw, 33% Birmingham — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Derby at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Derby0%Draw4%Birmingham96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Mohammed Fuseini
19'
21'
Alex Cochrane
⚽Bobby Clarkassist: Sammie Szmodics
40'
42'
⚽Carlos Vicenteassist: Liam Millar
44'
August Priske
🔁Henrik Wendel Meisterout: Oscar Fraulo
54'
60'
🔁Jhon Elmer Solís Romeroout: Paik Seung-Ho
63'
⚽Paik Seung-Hoassist: Liam Millar
73'
🔁August Priskeout: Luis Vasquez
73'
🔁Liam Millarout: Ethan Laird
🔁D. Ozohout: Corey Blackett-Taylor
85'
🔁Eiran Joe Cashinout: Ryan Hedges
85'
90+4'
Carlos Vicente
🔁Charlie Taylorout: Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
90+5'
90+6'
🔁Jay Stansfieldout: Kristoffer Lund
90+6'
🔁Carlos Vicenteout: Dael Fry

Match stats — Derby vs Birmingham

59%Possession41%
18Shots18
4On target9
10Corners4

Line-ups

Derby 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. Widell ZetterströmG
  • 23J. WardD
  • 6S. LangåsD
  • 44E. CashinD
  • 18C. TaylorD
  • 8B. ClarkM
  • 4D. OzohM
  • 16M. FuseiniM
  • 11S. SzmodicsM
  • 19H. MeisterM
  • 9C. MorrisF
Substitutes
  • 31J. VickersG
  • 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
  • 29O. FrauloM
  • 26R. HedgesM
  • 22M. JohnstonD
  • 20A. MowattM
  • 24R. NyambeD
  • 15L. SalvesenF
  • 28D. SandersonD
Coach: J. Eustace
Birmingham 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. BeadleG
  • 26B. Osayi-SamuelD
  • 5P. NeumannD
  • 4C. KlarerD
  • 20A. CochraneD
  • 24T. IwataM
  • 14J. SolisM
  • 7Carlos VicenteM
  • 28J. StansfieldM
  • 17L. MillarM
  • 9A. PriskeF
Substitutes
  • 8Paik Seung-HoM
  • 32L. VázquezF
  • 25K. LundD
  • 2E. LairdD
  • 27K. FujimotoM
  • 33M. DuckschF
  • 3L. BuchananD
  • 21R. AllsopG
  • 23D. FryD
Coach: C. Davies

Form going into Derby vs Birmingham

Derby

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1West Brom9 September 2026
  • L0-3away to West Ham5 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Portsmouth1 September 2026
  • L0-3Swansea29 August 2026
  • D2-2Cardiff22 August 2026

Birmingham

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Norwich9 September 2026
  • D2-2Wolves6 September 2026
  • D1-1Southampton1 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Wrexham28 August 2026
  • D2-2Bristol City22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Derby failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Derby conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Birmingham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Birmingham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Birmingham.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
23Derby121471021-117
7Birmingham125522012+820

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Derby vs Birmingham

  • 21 March 2026Derby 1–0 BirminghamChampionship
  • 26 December 2025Birmingham 1–1 DerbyChampionship
  • 30 January 2022Derby 2–2 BirminghamChampionship
  • 10 September 2021Birmingham 2–0 DerbyChampionship
  • 24 April 2021Derby 1–2 BirminghamChampionship

The full Derby vs Birmingham record →

Leading scorers: Derby and Birmingham

Derby

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Birmingham

GoalsAssists

  • L. Millar43
  • A. Priske41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Birmingham won 2–1 at Derby. The model had leaned towards a win for Derby at 38% and given a win for Birmingham 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Bobby Clark 40' for Derby, Carlos Vicente 42' for Birmingham, Paik Seung-Ho 63' for Birmingham.

How the call on Derby v Birmingham has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is Derby's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Derby win38%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Birmingham win33%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.