Regular Season - 7 · 12 September 2026, 11:30 UTC

Derby vs Birmingham Championship prediction & result

Pride Park, Derby
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Derby 1-2 Birmingham.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Derby, 28% draw, 32% Birmingham — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Derby 1.59, Birmingham 1.29.

Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Derby vs Birmingham

58%
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%2-1 9%1-0 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Derby at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Derby0%Draw4%Birmingham96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Mohammed Fuseini
19'
21'
Alex Cochrane
⚽Bobby Clarkassist: Sammie Szmodics
40'
42'
⚽Carlos Vicenteassist: Liam Millar
44'
August Priske
🔁Henrik Wendel Meisterout: Oscar Fraulo
54'
60'
🔁Jhon Elmer Solís Romeroout: Paik Seung-Ho
63'
⚽Paik Seung-Hoassist: Liam Millar
73'
🔁August Priskeout: Luis Vasquez
73'
🔁Liam Millarout: Ethan Laird
🔁D. Ozohout: Corey Blackett-Taylor
85'
🔁Eiran Joe Cashinout: Ryan Hedges
85'
90+4'
Carlos Vicente
🔁Charlie Taylorout: Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
90+5'
90+6'
🔁Jay Stansfieldout: Kristoffer Lund
90+6'
🔁Carlos Vicenteout: Dael Fry

Match stats — Derby vs Birmingham

59%Possession41%
18Shots18
4On target9
10Corners4

Line-ups

Derby 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. Widell ZetterströmG
  • 23J. WardD
  • 6S. LangåsD
  • 44E. CashinD
  • 18C. TaylorD
  • 8B. ClarkM
  • 4D. OzohM
  • 16M. FuseiniM
  • 11S. SzmodicsM
  • 19H. MeisterM
  • 9C. MorrisF
Substitutes
  • 31J. VickersG
  • 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
  • 29O. FrauloM
  • 26R. HedgesM
  • 22M. JohnstonD
  • 20A. MowattM
  • 24R. NyambeD
  • 15L. SalvesenF
  • 28D. SandersonD
Coach: J. Eustace
Birmingham 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. BeadleG
  • 26B. Osayi-SamuelD
  • 5P. NeumannD
  • 4C. KlarerD
  • 20A. CochraneD
  • 24T. IwataM
  • 14J. SolisM
  • 7Carlos VicenteM
  • 28J. StansfieldM
  • 17L. MillarM
  • 9A. PriskeF
Substitutes
  • 8Paik Seung-HoM
  • 32L. VázquezF
  • 25K. LundD
  • 2E. LairdD
  • 27K. FujimotoM
  • 33M. DuckschF
  • 3L. BuchananD
  • 21R. AllsopG
  • 23D. FryD
Coach: C. Davies

Form going into Derby vs Birmingham

Derby

  • L0-1West Brom9 September 2026
  • L0-3away to West Ham5 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Portsmouth1 September 2026
  • L0-3Swansea29 August 2026

Birmingham

  • L1-2away to Norwich9 September 2026
  • D2-2Wolves6 September 2026
  • D1-1Southampton1 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Wrexham28 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
22Derby7115613-74
9Birmingham7241109+110

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Derby vs Birmingham

  • 12 September 2026Derby 1–2 BirminghamChampionship
  • 21 March 2026Derby 1–0 BirminghamChampionship
  • 26 December 2025Birmingham 1–1 DerbyChampionship
  • 30 January 2022Derby 2–2 BirminghamChampionship
  • 10 September 2021Birmingham 2–0 DerbyChampionship
  • 24 April 2021Derby 1–2 BirminghamChampionship

Leading scorers: Derby and Birmingham

Derby

  • B. Clark2 goals2 assists

Birmingham

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.59 goals for Derby and 1.29 for Birmingham; the game produced 1 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Bobby Clark 40' (Derby), Carlos Vicente 42' (Birmingham), Paik Seung-Ho 63' (Birmingham).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Derby the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Derby against 1.29 for Birmingham. Derby's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.42 for Birmingham.