Burnley
vs
Derby
Championship prediction
Our model says: Burnley 2–0 Derby
The model makes it 51% Burnley, 27% draw, 22% Derby — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Burnley 1.98, Derby 0.91.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Burnley vs Derby
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Burnley wins, grey are draws, red are Derby wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burnley at 51% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Burnley vs Derby
Burnley
- L1-3away to Swansea12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Wrexham8 September 2026
- L1-2Bristol City5 September 2026
- D1-1Middlesbrough2 September 2026
- L1-4away to Norwich29 August 2026
Derby
- L1-2Birmingham12 September 2026
- L0-1West Brom9 September 2026
- L0-3away to West Ham5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Portsmouth1 September 2026
- L0-3Swansea29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Burnley | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 |
| 22 | Derby | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Burnley vs Derby
- 26 August 2025Burnley 2–1 DerbyLeague Cup
- 8 April 2025Derby 0–0 BurnleyChampionship
- 10 December 2024Burnley 0–0 DerbyChampionship
- 25 January 2016Burnley 4–1 DerbyChampionship
- 21 September 2015Derby 0–0 BurnleyChampionship
- 1 March 2014Burnley 2–0 DerbyChampionship
Leading scorers: Burnley and Derby
Burnley
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Derby
- B. Clark2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Burnley carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.52 for Derby. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.98 goals for Burnley and 0.91 for Derby. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Burnley rate 0.90 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Derby rate 0.69 and 1.35.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Derby, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Burnley a 0.1% chance of the title and Derby 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Burnley the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Burnley against 0.91 for Derby. Burnley's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.35 for Derby.