Burnley vs Derby Championship prediction & result
Final score: Burnley 1-1 Derby.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Burnley, 27% draw, 22% Derby — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burnley at 51% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Burnley vs Derby
Line-ups
- 37G. CoudertG
- 14C. RobertsD
- 15A. AhmedhodžićD
- 44IgorD
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 10M. EdwardsM
- 29J. LaurentM
- 3Max AlleyneM
- 5R. HatateM
- 7J. Bruun LarsenF
- 11Z. AmdouniF
- 9J. VardyF
- 2K. WalkerD
- 27A. BrojaF
- 18H. EkdalD
- 17A. HountondjiF
- 8U. RaghouberM
- 19L. RamazaniF
- 22O. SonneD
- 1M. WeißG
- 31J. VickersG
- 23J. WardD
- 6S. LangåsD
- 28D. SandersonD
- 18C. TaylorD
- 20A. MowattM
- 4D. OzohM
- 26R. HedgesM
- 11S. SzmodicsM
- 8B. ClarkM
- 9C. MorrisF
- 10R. BrewsterF
- 29O. FrauloM
- 16M. FuseiniF
- 22M. JohnstonD
- 12R. O'DonnellG
- 15L. SalvesenF
- 27L. TravisM
- 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
- 42Raymond OfforD
Form going into Burnley vs Derby
Burnley
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Swansea12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Wrexham8 September 2026
- L1-2Bristol City5 September 2026
- D1-1Middlesbrough2 September 2026
- L1-4away to Norwich29 August 2026
Derby
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Birmingham12 September 2026
- L0-1West Brom9 September 2026
- L0-3away to West Ham5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Portsmouth1 September 2026
- L0-3Swansea29 August 2026
What these results say
- Burnley did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Burnley scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Burnley conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Derby failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Derby conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Burnley vs Derby
- 26 August 2025Burnley 2–1 DerbyLeague Cup
- 8 April 2025Derby 0–0 BurnleyChampionship
- 10 December 2024Burnley 0–0 DerbyChampionship
- 25 January 2016Burnley 4–1 DerbyChampionship
- 21 September 2015Derby 0–0 BurnleyChampionship
The result against the call
Burnley and Derby drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Burnley at 51% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Zeki Amdouni 34' for Burnley, Mohammed Fuseini 90+3' for Derby.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.