Sheffield Utd
vs
Derby
Championship prediction
Our model says: Sheffield Utd 1–0 Derby
The model makes it 47% Sheffield Utd, 27% draw, 26% Derby — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sheffield Utd 1.64, Derby 1.08.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Sheffield Utd are 15th on 12 points from 9 games; Derby are 23rd on 6 points from 9 games — Championship.
- Sheffield Utd have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Lincoln.
- Derby have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Wrexham.
- Last 6 meetings: Sheffield Utd 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Derby 1–2 Sheffield Utd.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sheffield Utd vs Derby
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sheffield Utd at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sheffield Utd vs Derby
Sheffield Utd
- W3-0Lincoln10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Stoke City19 September 2026
- L0-1Wolves13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Blackburn8 September 2026
- L1-3Norwich5 September 2026
Derby
- D1-1Wrexham10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Burnley19 September 2026
- L1-2Birmingham12 September 2026
- L0-1West Brom9 September 2026
- L0-3away to West Ham5 September 2026
What these results say
- Sheffield Utd scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sheffield Utd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sheffield Utd had three goals or more.
- Derby did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Derby conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sheffield Utd
Chance to finish in the top four · 11% today
Derby
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 25% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Derby vs Sheffield Utd
Derby and Sheffield Utd have met 6 times in the records we hold, Sheffield Utd has won 4 of them to Derby's 2.
The record
Sheffield Utd won the last one 2–1 on 2 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 |
| Sheffield Utd | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 2 May 2026
ChampionshipDerby 1–2 Sheffield Utd - 1 Nov 2025
ChampionshipSheffield Utd 1–3 Derby - 1 Feb 2025
ChampionshipDerby 0–1 Sheffield Utd - 21 Sep 2024
ChampionshipSheffield Utd 1–0 Derby - 29 Jul 2023
Friendlies ClubsDerby 1–3 Sheffield Utd - 15 Jan 2022
ChampionshipDerby 2–0 Sheffield Utd
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Derby | 0.68 | 1.39 |
| Sheffield Utd | 0.78 | 1.33 |
Leading scorers: Sheffield Utd and Derby
Sheffield Utd
GoalsAssists
- P. Bamford41
Derby
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sheffield Utd carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.49 for Derby. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Sheffield Utd and 1.08 for Derby. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sheffield Utd rate 0.78 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Derby rate 0.68 and 1.39.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sheffield Utd a 0.8% chance of the title and Derby 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sheffield Utd the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Sheffield Utd against 1.08 for Derby. Sheffield Utd's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.39 for Derby.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sheffield Utd at home · Derby away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Sheffield UtdDerby
Sheffield Utd are 13th after 9 Championship matches (between 8th and 15th so far); Derby are 22nd after 9 (between 13th and 22nd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Sheffield Utd 9, Derby 9.
Derby score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Sheffield Utd have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sheffield Utd
- vs Wrexham30 Oct · Championshipwin 46%
- at Preston3 Nov · Championshipwin 44%
- at Charlton7 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
Derby
- at Millwall31 Oct · Championshipwin 24%
- vs Norwich3 Nov · Championshipwin 38%
- vs Bolton6 Nov · Championshipwin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.