Virtus Entella
vs
Hellas Verona
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Virtus Entella 0–1 Hellas Verona
The model makes it 29% Virtus Entella, 29% draw, 42% Hellas Verona — fair odds of 3.45, 3.45 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Virtus Entella 1.06, Hellas Verona 1.38.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Hellas Verona: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Virtus Entella's rating is built from 49 Serie B matches and Hellas Verona's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Virtus Entella are 16th on 10 points from 11 games; Hellas Verona are 7th on 16 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Virtus Entella are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Modena.
- Hellas Verona are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Mantova.
- Last 3 meetings: Hellas Verona 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 August 2026, ended Hellas Verona 2–2 Virtus Entella.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona
Has the model earned this number?
Hellas Verona at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona
Virtus Entella
Serie B
- L0-2Modena8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Sampdoria31 October 2026
- D1-1Avellino27 October 2026
- L0-1Mantova24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Padova17 October 2026
Hellas Verona
Serie B
- D0-0away to Mantova7 November 2026
- W3-0Carrarese1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Juve Stabia28 October 2026
- D1-1Pisa25 October 2026
- D2-2Catanzaro16 October 2026
What these results say
- Virtus Entella conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Virtus Entella failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Virtus Entella had two goals or fewer.
- Hellas Verona went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Hellas Verona scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Virtus Entella | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
| 7 | Hellas Verona | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Virtus Entella
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 36% today
Hellas Verona
Chance to finish in the top two · 13% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona
- 16 August 2026Hellas Verona 2–2 Virtus EntellaCoppa Italia
- 6 May 2017Virtus Entella 1–2 Hellas VeronaSerie B
- 19 December 2016Hellas Verona 1–0 Virtus EntellaSerie B
Leading scorers: Virtus Entella and Hellas Verona
Virtus Entella
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Hellas Verona
GoalsAssists
- D. Mosquera70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Virtus Entella a 0% chance of the title and Hellas Verona 4.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hellas Verona the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Virtus Entella against 1.38 for Hellas Verona. Virtus Entella's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.25 for Hellas Verona.
How the model reaches 42% for Hellas Verona to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Hellas Verona to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Virtus Entella's ratings add 5 points and Hellas Verona's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Virtus Entella's ratings35%+5
- Hellas Verona's ratings42%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Virtus Entella at home · Hellas Verona away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Virtus Entella 11, Hellas Verona 11.
Hellas Verona score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Virtus Entella have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Virtus Entella
- at Ascoli28 Nov · Serie Bwin 16%
- vs Empoli5 Dec · Serie Bwin 41%
- at Catanzaro8 Dec · Serie Bwin 28%
- vs Arezzo12 Dec · Serie Bwin 46%
Hellas Verona
- at Empoli28 Nov · Serie Bwin 43%
- vs Palermo5 Dec · Serie Bwin 39%
- vs Avellino8 Dec · Serie Bwin 48%
- at Sudtirol12 Dec · Serie Bwin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.