Juve Stabia
vs
Catanzaro
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Juve Stabia 1–0 Catanzaro
The model makes it 47% Juve Stabia, 27% draw, 26% Catanzaro — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Juve Stabia 1.64, Catanzaro 1.06.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Juve Stabia's rating is built from 52 Serie B matches and Catanzaro's from 54, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Juve Stabia are 13th on 12 points from 11 games; Catanzaro are bottom on 6 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Juve Stabia have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Arezzo.
- Catanzaro have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Cesena.
- Last 6 meetings: Catanzaro 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended Juve Stabia 1–1 Catanzaro.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Juve Stabia vs Catanzaro
Has the model earned this number?
Juve Stabia at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Juve Stabia vs Catanzaro
Juve Stabia
Serie B
- W1-0Arezzo7 November 2026
- D2-2away to Empoli1 November 2026
- L0-1Hellas Verona28 October 2026
- W1-0away to Cremonese24 October 2026
- W3-0Sudtirol18 October 2026
Catanzaro
Serie B
- L0-1away to Cesena7 November 2026
- D1-1Padova31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Benevento27 October 2026
- L1-6Ascoli24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Hellas Verona16 October 2026
What these results say
- Juve Stabia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Juve Stabia | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 20 | Catanzaro | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Juve Stabia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
Catanzaro
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 32% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Juve Stabia vs Catanzaro
- 18 April 2026Juve Stabia 1–1 CatanzaroSerie B
- 26 September 2025Catanzaro 2–2 Juve StabiaSerie B
- 1 May 2025Juve Stabia 2–0 CatanzaroSerie B
- 25 August 2024Catanzaro 0–0 Juve StabiaSerie B
- 25 February 2023Juve Stabia 1–4 CatanzaroSerie C - Girone C
- 22 October 2022Catanzaro 2–0 Juve StabiaSerie C - Girone C
Leading scorers: Juve Stabia and Catanzaro
Juve Stabia
GoalsAssists
- Antonio Di Nardo70
Catanzaro
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Juve Stabia a 0.2% chance of the title and Catanzaro 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Juve Stabia the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Juve Stabia against 1.06 for Catanzaro. Juve Stabia's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.7 for Catanzaro.
How the model reaches 47% for Juve Stabia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Juve Stabia to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Juve Stabia's ratings add 1 point and Catanzaro's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Juve Stabia's ratings43%+1
- Catanzaro's ratings47%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Juve Stabia at home · Catanzaro away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Juve StabiaCatanzaro
Juve Stabia are 13th after 11 Serie B matches (between 12th and 20th so far); Catanzaro are 20th after 11 (between 17th and 20th). Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Juve Stabia 11, Catanzaro 11.
Catanzaro score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Juve Stabia have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Juve Stabia
- at Carrarese28 Nov · Serie Bwin 34%
- vs Benevento5 Dec · Serie Bwin 38%
- at Ascoli8 Dec · Serie Bwin 20%
- vs Padova12 Dec · Serie Bwin 43%
Catanzaro
- vs Avellino28 Nov · Serie Bwin 38%
- at Cremonese5 Dec · Serie Bwin 24%
- vs Virtus Entella8 Dec · Serie Bwin 45%
- at Modena12 Dec · Serie Bwin 20%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.