Cesena
vs
Ascoli
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Cesena 0–1 Ascoli
The model makes it 24% Cesena, 30% draw, 46% Ascoli — fair odds of 4.17, 3.33 and 2.17.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Cesena 0.87, Ascoli 1.39.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
One-sided: Ascoli are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Cesena's rating is built from 49 Serie B matches and Ascoli's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Cesena are 11th on 15 points from 11 games; Ascoli are 3rd on 20 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Cesena are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Catanzaro.
- Ascoli are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Palermo.
- Last 4 meetings: Ascoli 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 February 2018, ended Ascoli 2–1 Cesena.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cesena vs Ascoli
Has the model earned this number?
Ascoli at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cesena vs Ascoli
Cesena
Serie B
- W1-0Catanzaro7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Sudtirol31 October 2026
- W2-1Empoli27 October 2026
- L0-3away to Modena24 October 2026
- D1-1Avellino18 October 2026
Ascoli
Serie B
- D1-1Palermo6 November 2026
- D0-0away to Arezzo1 November 2026
- W2-0Sampdoria27 October 2026
- W6-1away to Catanzaro24 October 2026
- D1-1Empoli17 October 2026
What these results say
- Cesena scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cesena conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ascoli went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Ascoli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Ascoli had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cesena | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 15 |
| 3 | Ascoli | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Cesena
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 14% today
Ascoli
Chance to finish in the top two · 47% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Cesena vs Ascoli
- 24 February 2018Ascoli 2–1 CesenaSerie B
- 24 September 2017Cesena 0–2 AscoliSerie B
- 28 January 2017Cesena 2–2 AscoliSerie B
- 27 September 2016Ascoli 0–0 CesenaSerie B
Leading scorers: Cesena and Ascoli
Cesena
GoalsAssists
- C. Shpendi81
Ascoli
GoalsAssists
- A. Silipo41
- G. Gori32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cesena a 0% chance of the title and Ascoli 20.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ascoli the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Cesena against 1.39 for Ascoli. Cesena's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/0.93 for Ascoli.
How the model reaches 46% for Ascoli to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Ascoli to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Cesena's ratings add 9 points and Ascoli's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Both sides at this match's level29%−1
- Cesena's ratings38%+9
- Ascoli's ratings46%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Cesena at home · Ascoli away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Cesena 11, Ascoli 11.
Cesena score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Ascoli have let in 3 there.
Ascoli score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Cesena have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Cesena
- at Vicenza Virtus28 Nov · Serie Bwin 33%
- vs Carrarese5 Dec · Serie Bwin 40%
- at Arezzo8 Dec · Serie Bwin 36%
- vs Palermo12 Dec · Serie Bwin 27%
Ascoli
- vs Virtus Entella28 Nov · Serie Bwin 57%
- at Mantova5 Dec · Serie Bwin 39%
- vs Juve Stabia8 Dec · Serie Bwin 50%
- at Pisa12 Dec · Serie Bwin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.