Mantova
vs
Arezzo
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Mantova 1–0 Arezzo
The model makes it 55% Mantova, 26% draw, 19% Arezzo — fair odds of 1.82, 3.85 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Mantova 1.79, Arezzo 0.83.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Mantova: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Mantova's rating is built from 49 Serie B matches and Arezzo's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Mantova are 4th on 19 points from 11 games; Arezzo are 14th on 11 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Mantova are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Hellas Verona.
- Arezzo are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Juve Stabia.
- Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 July 2025, ended Mantova 1–2 Arezzo.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mantova vs Arezzo
Has the model earned this number?
Mantova at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Mantova vs Arezzo
Mantova
Serie B
- D0-0Hellas Verona7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Modena31 October 2026
- L0-2Cremonese27 October 2026
- W1-0away to Virtus Entella24 October 2026
- L0-2Palermo17 October 2026
Arezzo
Serie B
- L0-1away to Juve Stabia7 November 2026
- D0-0Ascoli1 November 2026
- L1-2away to Carrarese28 October 2026
- L0-3Benevento24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Sampdoria18 October 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Mantova had two goals or fewer.
- Mantova failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arezzo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arezzo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mantova | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 14 | Arezzo | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Mantova
Chance to finish in the top two · 5% today
Arezzo
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 53% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Mantova vs Arezzo
- 27 July 2025Mantova 1–2 ArezzoFriendlies Clubs
- 3 March 2021Arezzo 1–1 MantovaSerie C - Girone B
- 25 November 2020Mantova 2–0 ArezzoSerie C - Girone B
Leading scorers: Mantova and Arezzo
Mantova
GoalsAssists
- F. Ruocco50
Arezzo
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mantova a 1.1% chance of the title and Arezzo 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mantova the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Mantova against 0.83 for Arezzo. Mantova's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.69 for Arezzo.
How the model reaches 55% for Mantova to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Mantova to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Mantova's ratings add 7 points and Arezzo's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level41%−1
- Mantova's ratings48%+7
- Arezzo's ratings55%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Mantova at home · Arezzo away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Mantova 11, Arezzo 11.
Arezzo score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Mantova have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Mantova
- at Sudtirol28 Nov · Serie Bwin 33%
- vs Ascoli5 Dec · Serie Bwin 30%
- at Vicenza Virtus8 Dec · Serie Bwin 40%
- vs Benevento12 Dec · Serie Bwin 39%
Arezzo
- vs Pisa28 Nov · Serie Bwin 28%
- at Modena5 Dec · Serie Bwin 14%
- vs Cesena8 Dec · Serie Bwin 35%
- at Virtus Entella12 Dec · Serie Bwin 25%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.