Real Madrid
vs
PSV Eindhoven
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Real Madrid 2–1 PSV Eindhoven
The model makes it 70% Real Madrid, 17% draw, 13% PSV Eindhoven — fair odds of 1.43, 5.88 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.97, PSV Eindhoven 1.05.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Real Madrid are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Real Madrid's rating is built from 50 La Liga matches and PSV Eindhoven's from 46 Eredivisie matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 17 matches for Real Madrid, 12 for PSV Eindhoven. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 722 matches.
Key facts
- Real Madrid are 2nd on 12 points from 4 games; PSV Eindhoven are 24th on 4 points from 4 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last 4 games (4 won), most recently a 3-2 win away to AEK Athens FC.
- PSV Eindhoven have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Club Brugge KV.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven
Has the model earned this number?
Real Madrid at 70%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven
Real Madrid
UEFA Champions League
- W3-2away to AEK Athens FC4 November 2026
- W4-1RB Leipzig21 October 2026
- W4-3away to AS Roma14 October 2026
- W2-1Inter8 September 2026
PSV Eindhoven
UEFA Champions League
- L1-2Club Brugge KV4 November 2026
- W1-0away to FC Porto20 October 2026
- L0-1away to RB Leipzig13 October 2026
- D1-1Shakhtar Donetsk10 September 2026
What these results say
- Real Madrid won every one of these 4 matches.
- Real Madrid scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Real Madrid conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Real Madrid | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 12 |
| 24 | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Real Madrid and PSV Eindhoven
Real Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Kylian Mbappé41
PSV Eindhoven
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Madrid the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.97 expected goals for Real Madrid against 1.05 for PSV Eindhoven. Real Madrid's attack/defence rating is 1.67/0.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.48/0.86 for PSV Eindhoven.
How the model reaches 70% for Real Madrid to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Real Madrid to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, Real Madrid's ratings add 12 points and PSV Eindhoven's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 70%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage47%+10
- Real Madrid's ratings59%+12
- PSV Eindhoven's ratings70%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Real Madrid at home · PSV Eindhoven away
League matches only, this season — Real Madrid in the La Liga, PSV Eindhoven in the Eredivisie; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Real Madrid 12 in the La Liga, PSV Eindhoven 12 in the Eredivisie.
Real Madrid score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); PSV Eindhoven have let in 4 there.
PSV Eindhoven score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Real Madrid have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Real Madrid
- vs Alaves28 Nov · La Ligawin 76%
- at Real Sociedad2 Dec · La Ligawin 56%
- at Athletic Club6 Dec · La Ligawin 54%
- at Arsenal9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 30%
PSV Eindhoven
- vs GO Ahead Eagles28 Nov · Eredivisiewin 77%
- at AZ Alkmaar5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 47%
- vs Atletico Madrid9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 44%
- vs Telstar13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 74%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.