Galatasaray
vs
Aston Villa
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Galatasaray 1–2 Aston Villa
The model makes it 30% Galatasaray, 24% draw, 46% Aston Villa — fair odds of 3.33, 4.17 and 2.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Galatasaray 1.52, Aston Villa 1.98.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Aston Villa: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Galatasaray's rating is built from 45 Süper Lig matches and Aston Villa's from 48 Premier League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 16 matches for Galatasaray, 19 for Aston Villa. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 722 matches.
Key facts
- Galatasaray are 18th on 6 points from 4 games; Aston Villa are 6th on 9 points from 4 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Galatasaray have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to VfB Stuttgart.
- Aston Villa have won 3 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Barcelona.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Galatasaray vs Aston Villa
Has the model earned this number?
Aston Villa at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Galatasaray vs Aston Villa
Galatasaray
UEFA Champions League
- W2-0VfB Stuttgart3 November 2026
- W4-2away to Lille21 October 2026
- L1-4Barcelona13 October 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting CP9 September 2026
Aston Villa
UEFA Champions League
- L0-3away to Barcelona3 November 2026
- W3-1Viking21 October 2026
- W6-0Fenerbahçe14 October 2026
- W3-2away to Club Brugge KV8 September 2026
What these results say
- Galatasaray scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Galatasaray conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Galatasaray had three goals or more.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Aston Villa had three goals or more.
- Aston Villa won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Aston Villa scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Galatasaray | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Galatasaray and Aston Villa
Galatasaray
GoalsAssists
- A. Batrakov40
Aston Villa
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aston Villa the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Galatasaray against 1.98 for Aston Villa. Galatasaray's attack/defence rating is 1.38/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.36/0.97 for Aston Villa.
How the model reaches 46% for Aston Villa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Aston Villa to win. Then home advantage takes away 9 points, Galatasaray's ratings add 8 points and Aston Villa's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage29%−9
- Galatasaray's ratings37%+8
- Aston Villa's ratings46%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Galatasaray at home · Aston Villa away
League matches only, this season — Galatasaray in the Süper Lig, Aston Villa in the Premier League; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Galatasaray 11 in the Süper Lig, Aston Villa 10 in the Premier League.
Galatasaray score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Aston Villa have let in 4 there.
Aston Villa score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Galatasaray have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Galatasaray
- at Beşiktaş30 Nov · Süper Ligwin 36%
- vs Rizespor4 Dec · Süper Ligwin 72%
- at AEK Athens FC8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 24%
- at Eyüpspor12 Dec · Süper Ligwin 76%
Aston Villa
- at Ipswich28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 48%
- vs Everton2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 49%
- vs Crystal Palace5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 66%
- vs Paris Saint Germain8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 34%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.