Avellino
vs
Mantova
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Avellino 1–0 Mantova
The model makes it 41% Avellino, 29% draw, 30% Mantova — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Avellino 1.34, Mantova 1.05.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Avellino's rating is built from 50 Serie B matches and Mantova's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Avellino are 5th on 16 points from 11 games; Mantova are 4th on 19 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Avellino are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Benevento.
- Mantova are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Hellas Verona.
- Last 2 meetings: Avellino 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended Mantova 0–2 Avellino.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Avellino vs Mantova
Has the model earned this number?
Avellino at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Avellino vs Mantova
Avellino
Serie B
- D1-1away to Benevento7 November 2026
- W2-0Pisa1 November 2026
- D1-1away to Virtus Entella27 October 2026
- L0-1Padova24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Cesena18 October 2026
Mantova
Serie B
- D0-0Hellas Verona7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Modena31 October 2026
- L0-2Cremonese27 October 2026
- W1-0away to Virtus Entella24 October 2026
- L0-2Palermo17 October 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Avellino had two goals or fewer.
- Avellino failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Avellino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Mantova had two goals or fewer.
- Mantova failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Avellino | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 16 |
| 4 | Mantova | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Mantova
Chance to finish in the top two · 5% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Avellino vs Mantova
- 18 April 2026Mantova 0–2 AvellinoSerie B
- 4 October 2025Avellino 0–0 MantovaSerie B
Leading scorers: Avellino and Mantova
Avellino
GoalsAssists
- R. Russo52
- M. Besaggio30
Mantova
GoalsAssists
- F. Ruocco50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Mantova (fourth, with Avellino fifth), while our numbers lean to Avellino. Avellino rate 0.70 in attack and 1.27 in defence, Mantova 0.71 and 1.29 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Avellino a 1.2% chance of the title and Mantova 1.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Avellino the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Avellino against 1.05 for Mantova. Avellino's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.29 for Mantova.
How the model reaches 41% for Avellino to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Avellino to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Avellino's ratings change nothing and Mantova's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level41%−1
- Avellino's ratings41%±0
- Mantova's ratings41%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Avellino at home · Mantova away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Avellino 11, Mantova 11.
Avellino score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Mantova have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Avellino
- at Cremonese24 Nov · Serie Bwin 28%
- at Catanzaro28 Nov · Serie Bwin 35%
- vs Sudtirol5 Dec · Serie Bwin 45%
- at Hellas Verona8 Dec · Serie Bwin 25%
- vs Empoli12 Dec · Serie Bwin 50%
Mantova
- vs Arezzo24 Nov · Serie Bwin 55%
- at Sudtirol28 Nov · Serie Bwin 33%
- vs Ascoli5 Dec · Serie Bwin 30%
- at Vicenza Virtus8 Dec · Serie Bwin 40%
- vs Benevento12 Dec · Serie Bwin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.