Regular Season - 12 · 21 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Empoli vs Pisa Serie B prediction

Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli

Our model says: Empoli 1–2 Pisa

The model makes it 34% Empoli, 25% draw, 41% Pisa — fair odds of 2.94, 4.00 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Empoli 1.58, Pisa 1.76.

Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Edge to Pisa: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Empoli's rating is built from 49 Serie B matches and Pisa's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.

Key facts

  • Empoli are 19th on 9 points from 11 games; Pisa are 8th on 16 points from 11 games — Serie B.
  • Empoli have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Padova.
  • Pisa are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Sudtirol.
  • Last 5 meetings: Empoli 3 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 August 2026, ended Pisa 1–1 Empoli.

More Serie B predictions

All Serie B predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Empoli vs Pisa

66%
Both teams to score
65%
Over 2.5 goals
35%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Empoli win Draw Pisa win
  1. 1–110%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 2–18%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 0–16%
  6. 0–25%
  7. 1–05%

Scores read Empoli first; the other scorelines share the remaining 50%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Pisa at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Empoli vs Pisa

Empoli

Serie B

  • D2-2away to Padova7 November 2026
  • D2-2Juve Stabia1 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Cesena27 October 2026
  • L0-2Vicenza Virtus23 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Ascoli17 October 2026

Pisa

Serie B

  • D2-2Sudtirol7 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Avellino1 November 2026
  • D3-3Palermo28 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Hellas Verona25 October 2026
  • W3-1Cremonese17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Empoli did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Empoli conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Empoli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Pisa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Pisa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Pisa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Empoli112361219-79
8Pisa114432017+316

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Empoli

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 35% today

Win 28%
Draw 36%
Defeat 39%

Pisa

Chance to finish in the top two · 7% today

Win 9%
Draw 5%
Defeat 4%

From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Empoli vs Pisa

  • 17 August 2026Pisa 1–1 EmpoliCoppa Italia
  • 20 February 2021Pisa 1–1 EmpoliSerie B
  • 23 October 2020Empoli 3–1 PisaSerie B
  • 16 February 2020Empoli 2–1 PisaSerie B
  • 24 September 2019Pisa 2–3 EmpoliSerie B

Leading scorers: Empoli and Pisa

Empoli

GoalsAssists

  • E. Saporiti40

Pisa

GoalsAssists

  • F. Pittarello41
  • M. Tramoni35
  • T. Marras31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Empoli a 0% chance of the title and Pisa 1.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Empoli v Pisa has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 32% / 26% / 42% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 34% / 25% / 41%: the biggest move is Empoli's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Empoli win34%▲ +2
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Pisa win41%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Empoli Pisa
0.68 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.92
1.64 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.56
1.58 Model expected goals (this match) 1.76

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Pisa the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Empoli against 1.76 for Pisa. Empoli's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.56 for Pisa.

Empoli carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.6 for Pisa.

How the model reaches 41% for Pisa to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Pisa to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Empoli's ratings add 4 points and Pisa's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 41%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage30%−6
  3. Both sides at this match's level31%+1
  4. Empoli's ratings35%+4
  5. Pisa's ratings41%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

EmpoliPisa
11Matches11
2W 3D 6LRecord4W 4D 3L
12 1.1 per gameGoals scored20 1.8 per game
19 1.7 per gameGoals conceded17 1.5 per game
2 of 11Clean sheets2 of 11
2 of 11Failed to score2 of 11
2 of 2Penalties scored0 of 1
20 1.8 per gameYellow cards23 2.1 per game
4Red cards1
3-5-2 8×Usual shape3-4-2-1 8×

Empoli at home · Pisa away

5Played5
1W 1D 3LRecord2W 2D 1L
5–9Goals for – against9–5
1 of 5Clean sheets2 of 5

League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie B matches this season: Empoli 11, Pisa 11.

Empoli scored 132251
Pisa conceded 223522

Empoli score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Pisa have let in 2 there.

Pisa scored 153235
Empoli conceded 123353

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Empoli

  • at Benevento24 Nov · Serie Bwin 22%
  • vs Hellas Verona28 Nov · Serie Bwin 30%
  • at Virtus Entella5 Dec · Serie Bwin 30%
  • vs Sudtirol8 Dec · Serie Bwin 39%
  • at Avellino12 Dec · Serie Bwin 23%

Pisa

  • vs Modena24 Nov · Serie Bwin 38%
  • at Arezzo28 Nov · Serie Bwin 47%
  • vs Sampdoria5 Dec · Serie Bwin 55%
  • at Carrarese8 Dec · Serie Bwin 39%
  • vs Ascoli12 Dec · Serie Bwin 33%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.