Sudtirol
vs
Cremonese
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Sudtirol 0–1 Cremonese
The model makes it 34% Sudtirol, 31% draw, 35% Cremonese — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sudtirol 1.08, Cremonese 1.12.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Sudtirol and Cremonese are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Sudtirol's rating is built from 51 Serie B matches and Cremonese's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Sudtirol are 12th on 15 points from 11 games; Cremonese are 9th on 15 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Sudtirol have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Pisa.
- Cremonese are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Vicenza Virtus.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 February 2025, ended Cremonese 3–1 Sudtirol.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sudtirol vs Cremonese
Has the model earned this number?
Cremonese at 35%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sudtirol vs Cremonese
Sudtirol
Serie B
- D2-2away to Pisa7 November 2026
- D1-1Cesena31 October 2026
- L0-2away to Padova27 October 2026
- D1-1Sampdoria24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Juve Stabia18 October 2026
Cremonese
Serie B
- W4-1away to Vicenza Virtus8 November 2026
- W2-0Benevento31 October 2026
- W2-0away to Mantova27 October 2026
- L0-1Juve Stabia24 October 2026
- L1-3away to Pisa17 October 2026
What these results say
- Sudtirol did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sudtirol conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cremonese scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sudtirol | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 | Cremonese | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sudtirol
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
Cremonese
Chance to finish in the top two · 5% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Sudtirol vs Cremonese
- 9 February 2025Cremonese 3–1 SudtirolSerie B
- 30 November 2024Sudtirol 0–4 CremoneseSerie B
- 16 March 2024Sudtirol 3–0 CremoneseSerie B
- 21 October 2023Cremonese 0–1 SudtirolSerie B
Leading scorers: Sudtirol and Cremonese
Sudtirol
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Cremonese
GoalsAssists
- F. Bonazzoli62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sudtirol a 0.1% chance of the title and Cremonese 1.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Sudtirol v Cremonese has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 36% / 32% / 32% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 34% / 31% / 35%: the biggest move is Cremonese's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Sudtirol win34%▼ −2
- Draw31%▼ −1
- Cremonese win35%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cremonese the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Sudtirol against 1.12 for Cremonese. Sudtirol's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.21 for Cremonese.
How the model reaches 35% for Cremonese to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cremonese to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Sudtirol's ratings add 3 points and Cremonese's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 35%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Both sides at this match's level29%−1
- Sudtirol's ratings32%+3
- Cremonese's ratings35%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sudtirol at home · Cremonese away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Sudtirol 11, Cremonese 11.
Sudtirol score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Cremonese have let in 2 there.
Cremonese score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Sudtirol have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sudtirol
- at Palermo24 Nov · Serie Bwin 18%
- vs Mantova28 Nov · Serie Bwin 36%
- at Avellino5 Dec · Serie Bwin 25%
- at Empoli8 Dec · Serie Bwin 32%
- vs Hellas Verona12 Dec · Serie Bwin 32%
Cremonese
- vs Avellino24 Nov · Serie Bwin 43%
- at Sampdoria28 Nov · Serie Bwin 39%
- vs Catanzaro5 Dec · Serie Bwin 51%
- at Palermo8 Dec · Serie Bwin 24%
- vs Carrarese12 Dec · Serie Bwin 49%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.