Benevento
vs
Empoli
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Benevento 1–0 Empoli
The model makes it 52% Benevento, 26% draw, 22% Empoli — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Benevento 1.76, Empoli 0.95.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Benevento: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Benevento's rating is built from 11 Serie B matches and Empoli's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Benevento are 6th on 16 points from 11 games; Empoli are 19th on 9 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Benevento are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Avellino.
- Empoli have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Padova.
- Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 October 2020, ended Benevento 2–4 Empoli.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Benevento vs Empoli
Has the model earned this number?
Benevento at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Benevento vs Empoli
Benevento
Serie B
- D1-1Avellino7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Cremonese31 October 2026
- D1-1Catanzaro27 October 2026
- W3-0away to Arezzo24 October 2026
- D2-2Vicenza Virtus17 October 2026
Empoli
Serie B
- D2-2away to Padova7 November 2026
- D2-2Juve Stabia1 November 2026
- L1-2away to Cesena27 October 2026
- L0-2Vicenza Virtus23 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ascoli17 October 2026
What these results say
- Benevento failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Benevento scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Benevento conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Empoli did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Empoli conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Empoli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Benevento | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 19 | Empoli | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Empoli
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 35% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Benevento vs Empoli
- 28 October 2020Benevento 2–4 EmpoliCoppa Italia
- 26 June 2020Empoli 0–0 BeneventoSerie B
- 3 November 2019Benevento 2–0 EmpoliSerie B
Leading scorers: Benevento and Empoli
Benevento
GoalsAssists
- A. Siatounis40
Empoli
GoalsAssists
- E. Saporiti40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Benevento a 1.4% chance of the title and Empoli 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benevento the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Benevento against 0.95 for Empoli. Benevento's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.64 for Empoli.
How the model reaches 52% for Benevento to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Benevento to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Benevento's ratings add 4 points and Empoli's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Benevento's ratings46%+4
- Empoli's ratings52%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Benevento at home · Empoli away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Benevento 11, Empoli 11.
Benevento score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Empoli have let in 2 there.
Empoli score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Benevento have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Benevento
- at Palermo28 Nov · Serie Bwin 23%
- at Juve Stabia5 Dec · Serie Bwin 31%
- vs Padova8 Dec · Serie Bwin 46%
- at Mantova12 Dec · Serie Bwin 31%
Empoli
- vs Hellas Verona28 Nov · Serie Bwin 30%
- at Virtus Entella5 Dec · Serie Bwin 30%
- vs Sudtirol8 Dec · Serie Bwin 39%
- at Avellino12 Dec · Serie Bwin 23%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.