Cremonese
vs
Avellino
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Cremonese 1–0 Avellino
The model makes it 43% Cremonese, 29% draw, 28% Avellino — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cremonese 1.38, Avellino 0.99.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Cremonese's rating is built from 11 Serie B matches and Avellino's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Cremonese are 9th on 15 points from 11 games; Avellino are 5th on 16 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Cremonese are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Vicenza Virtus.
- Avellino are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Benevento.
- Last 2 meetings: Cremonese 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 January 2018, ended Avellino 0–0 Cremonese.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cremonese vs Avellino
Has the model earned this number?
Cremonese at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cremonese vs Avellino
Cremonese
Serie B
- W4-1away to Vicenza Virtus8 November 2026
- W2-0Benevento31 October 2026
- W2-0away to Mantova27 October 2026
- L0-1Juve Stabia24 October 2026
- L1-3away to Pisa17 October 2026
Avellino
Serie B
- D1-1away to Benevento7 November 2026
- W2-0Pisa1 November 2026
- D1-1away to Virtus Entella27 October 2026
- L0-1Padova24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Cesena18 October 2026
What these results say
- Cremonese scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Avellino had two goals or fewer.
- Avellino failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Avellino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cremonese | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 15 |
| 5 | Avellino | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cremonese vs Avellino
- 27 January 2018Avellino 0–0 CremoneseSerie B
- 3 September 2017Cremonese 3–1 AvellinoSerie B
Leading scorers: Cremonese and Avellino
Cremonese
GoalsAssists
- F. Bonazzoli62
Avellino
GoalsAssists
- R. Russo52
- M. Besaggio30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Avellino (fifth, with Cremonese ninth), while our numbers lean to Cremonese. Cremonese rate 0.73 in attack and 1.21 in defence, Avellino 0.70 and 1.27 (lower is better in defence), so Cremonese have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cremonese a 1.2% chance of the title and Avellino 1.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cremonese the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Cremonese against 0.99 for Avellino. Cremonese's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.27 for Avellino.
How the model reaches 43% for Cremonese to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cremonese to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Cremonese's ratings add 1 point and Avellino's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level41%−1
- Cremonese's ratings42%+1
- Avellino's ratings43%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Cremonese at home · Avellino away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Cremonese 11, Avellino 11.
Cremonese score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Avellino have let in 2 there.
Avellino score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Cremonese have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Cremonese
- at Sampdoria28 Nov · Serie Bwin 39%
- vs Catanzaro5 Dec · Serie Bwin 51%
- at Palermo8 Dec · Serie Bwin 24%
- vs Carrarese12 Dec · Serie Bwin 49%
Avellino
- at Catanzaro28 Nov · Serie Bwin 35%
- vs Sudtirol5 Dec · Serie Bwin 45%
- at Hellas Verona8 Dec · Serie Bwin 25%
- vs Empoli12 Dec · Serie Bwin 50%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.