Catanzaro
vs
Palermo
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Catanzaro 1–2 Palermo
The model makes it 28% Catanzaro, 25% draw, 47% Palermo — fair odds of 3.57, 4.00 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Catanzaro 1.41, Palermo 1.96.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Palermo: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Catanzaro's rating is built from 54 Serie B matches and Palermo's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Catanzaro are bottom on 6 points from 11 games; Palermo are top on 27 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Catanzaro have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Cesena.
- Palermo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Ascoli.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 20 May 2026, ended Palermo 2–0 Catanzaro.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Catanzaro vs Palermo
Has the model earned this number?
Palermo at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Catanzaro vs Palermo
Catanzaro
Serie B
- L0-1away to Cesena7 November 2026
- D1-1Padova31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Benevento27 October 2026
- L1-6Ascoli24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Hellas Verona16 October 2026
Palermo
Serie B
- D1-1away to Ascoli6 November 2026
- W3-1Vicenza Virtus1 November 2026
- D3-3away to Pisa28 October 2026
- W2-1Carrarese25 October 2026
- W2-0away to Mantova17 October 2026
What these results say
- Catanzaro did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Palermo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Palermo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Palermo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Catanzaro | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 6 |
| 1 | Palermo | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 13 | +12 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Catanzaro
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 32% today
Palermo
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 55% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Catanzaro vs Palermo
- 20 May 2026Palermo 2–0 CatanzaroSerie B
- 17 May 2026Catanzaro 3–0 PalermoSerie B
- 1 May 2026Palermo 3–2 CatanzaroSerie B
- 25 October 2025Catanzaro 1–0 PalermoSerie B
- 27 April 2025Catanzaro 1–3 PalermoSerie B
- 15 December 2024Palermo 1–2 CatanzaroSerie B
Leading scorers: Catanzaro and Palermo
Catanzaro
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Palermo
GoalsAssists
- D. Johnsen75
- D. Vavassori61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Catanzaro a 0% chance of the title and Palermo 54.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Catanzaro v Palermo has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 30% / 24% / 46% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 28% / 25% / 47%: the biggest move is Catanzaro's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Catanzaro win28%▼ −2
- Draw25%▲ +1
- Palermo win47%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Palermo the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Catanzaro against 1.96 for Palermo. Catanzaro's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/1.23 for Palermo.
How the model reaches 47% for Palermo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Palermo to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Catanzaro's ratings add 8 points and Palermo's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Both sides at this match's level31%+1
- Catanzaro's ratings39%+8
- Palermo's ratings47%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Catanzaro at home · Palermo away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
CatanzaroPalermo
Catanzaro are 20th after 11 Serie B matches (between 17th and 20th so far); Palermo are 1st after 11 (between 1st and 8th). Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Catanzaro 11, Palermo 11.
Catanzaro score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Palermo have let in 2 there.
Palermo score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Catanzaro have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Catanzaro
- at Juve Stabia24 Nov · Serie Bwin 26%
- vs Avellino28 Nov · Serie Bwin 38%
- at Cremonese5 Dec · Serie Bwin 24%
- vs Virtus Entella8 Dec · Serie Bwin 45%
- at Modena12 Dec · Serie Bwin 20%
Palermo
- vs Sudtirol24 Nov · Serie Bwin 58%
- vs Benevento28 Nov · Serie Bwin 51%
- at Hellas Verona5 Dec · Serie Bwin 35%
- vs Cremonese8 Dec · Serie Bwin 50%
- at Cesena12 Dec · Serie Bwin 47%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.