Modena
vs
Juve Stabia
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Modena 1–0 Juve Stabia
The model makes it 47% Modena, 29% draw, 24% Juve Stabia — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Modena 1.44, Juve Stabia 0.86.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Modena: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Modena's rating is built from 50 Serie B matches and Juve Stabia's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Modena are 2nd on 23 points from 11 games; Juve Stabia are 13th on 12 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Modena are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Virtus Entella.
- Juve Stabia have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Arezzo.
- Last 5 meetings: Modena 3 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 May 2026, ended Modena 0–1 Juve Stabia.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Modena vs Juve Stabia
Has the model earned this number?
Modena at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Modena vs Juve Stabia
Modena
Serie B
- W2-0away to Virtus Entella8 November 2026
- D1-1Mantova31 October 2026
- W2-1away to Vicenza Virtus27 October 2026
- W3-0Cesena24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Carrarese17 October 2026
Juve Stabia
Serie B
- W1-0Arezzo7 November 2026
- D2-2away to Empoli1 November 2026
- L0-1Hellas Verona28 October 2026
- W1-0away to Cremonese24 October 2026
- W3-0Sudtirol18 October 2026
What these results say
- Modena scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Juve Stabia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Modena | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 23 |
| 13 | Juve Stabia | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Modena
Chance to finish in the top two · 36% today
Juve Stabia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Modena vs Juve Stabia
- 12 May 2026Modena 0–1 Juve StabiaSerie B
- 22 February 2026Juve Stabia 1–2 ModenaSerie B
- 2 November 2025Modena 3–0 Juve StabiaSerie B
- 15 March 2025Juve Stabia 2–1 ModenaSerie B
- 21 September 2024Modena 3–0 Juve StabiaSerie B
Leading scorers: Modena and Juve Stabia
Modena
GoalsAssists
- A. Belotti70
- G. Ambrosino33
- G. Caso32
Juve Stabia
GoalsAssists
- Antonio Di Nardo70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Modena a 13.7% chance of the title and Juve Stabia 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Modena the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Modena against 0.86 for Juve Stabia. Modena's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.18 for Juve Stabia.
How the model reaches 47% for Modena to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Modena to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Modena's ratings add 3 points and Juve Stabia's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level41%−1
- Modena's ratings44%+3
- Juve Stabia's ratings47%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Modena at home · Juve Stabia away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
ModenaJuve Stabia
Modena are 2nd after 11 Serie B matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Juve Stabia are 13th after 11 (between 12th and 20th). Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Modena 11, Juve Stabia 11.
Modena score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Juve Stabia have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Modena
- at Pisa24 Nov · Serie Bwin 36%
- vs Padova28 Nov · Serie Bwin 51%
- vs Arezzo5 Dec · Serie Bwin 63%
- at Sampdoria8 Dec · Serie Bwin 44%
- vs Catanzaro12 Dec · Serie Bwin 56%
Juve Stabia
- vs Catanzaro24 Nov · Serie Bwin 47%
- at Carrarese28 Nov · Serie Bwin 34%
- vs Benevento5 Dec · Serie Bwin 38%
- at Ascoli8 Dec · Serie Bwin 20%
- vs Padova12 Dec · Serie Bwin 43%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.