Regular Season - 13 · 24 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese Serie B prediction

Stadio Romeo Menti, Vicenza

Our model says: Vicenza Virtus 2–1 Carrarese

The model makes it 39% Vicenza Virtus, 28% draw, 33% Carrarese — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Vicenza Virtus 1.48, Carrarese 1.32.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Vicenza Virtus's rating is built from 11 Serie B matches and Carrarese's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.

Key facts

  • Vicenza Virtus are 18th on 9 points from 11 games; Carrarese are 17th on 10 points from 11 games — Serie B.
  • Vicenza Virtus are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Cremonese.
  • Carrarese have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Sampdoria.
  • Last 2 meetings: Carrarese 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 June 2024, ended Carrarese 1–0 Vicenza Virtus.

More Serie B predictions

All Serie B predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese

57%
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Vicenza Virtus win Draw Carrarese win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–08%
  4. 1–28%
  5. 0–17%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 2–07%

Scores read Vicenza Virtus first; the other scorelines share the remaining 42%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Vicenza Virtus at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese

Vicenza Virtus

Serie B

  • L1-4Cremonese8 November 2026
  • L1-3away to Palermo1 November 2026
  • L1-2Modena27 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Empoli23 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Benevento17 October 2026

Carrarese

Serie B

  • L0-1Sampdoria8 November 2026
  • L0-3away to Hellas Verona1 November 2026
  • W2-1Arezzo28 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Palermo25 October 2026
  • W2-1Modena17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Vicenza Virtus scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Vicenza Virtus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Vicenza Virtus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Carrarese conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Carrarese had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Vicenza Virtus112361424-109
17Carrarese11317914-510

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Vicenza Virtus

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 46% today

Win 39%
Draw 49%
Defeat 52%

Carrarese

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 27% today

Win 21%
Draw 27%
Defeat 32%

From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese

  • 9 June 2024Carrarese 1–0 Vicenza VirtusSerie C - Promotion - Play-offs
  • 5 June 2024Vicenza Virtus 0–0 CarrareseSerie C - Promotion - Play-offs

Leading scorers: Vicenza Virtus and Carrarese

Vicenza Virtus

GoalsAssists

  • S. Merkaj31

Carrarese

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Carrarese (17th, with Vicenza Virtus 18th), while our numbers lean to Vicenza Virtus. Vicenza Virtus rate 0.72 in attack and 1.91 in defence, Carrarese 0.59 and 1.38 (lower is better in defence), so Vicenza Virtus have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Vicenza Virtus Carrarese
0.72 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.59
1.91 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.38
1.48 Model expected goals (this match) 1.32

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Vicenza Virtus the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus against 1.32 for Carrarese. Vicenza Virtus's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.38 for Carrarese.

Vicenza Virtus carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.43 for Carrarese. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 39% for Vicenza Virtus to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Vicenza Virtus to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Vicenza Virtus's ratings take away 1 point and Carrarese's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage42%+6
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%+1
  4. Vicenza Virtus's ratings42%−1
  5. Carrarese's ratings39%−3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Vicenza VirtusCarrarese
11Matches11
2W 3D 6LRecord3W 1D 7L
14 1.3 per gameGoals scored9 0.8 per game
24 2.2 per gameGoals conceded14 1.3 per game
1 of 11Clean sheets1 of 11
2 of 11Failed to score5 of 11
–Penalties scored–
27 2.5 per gameYellow cards22 2.0 per game
3-5-2 8×Usual shape3-5-2 10×

Vicenza Virtus at home · Carrarese away

5Played5
1W 1D 3LRecord1W 1D 3L
6–12Goals for – against4–7
0 of 5Clean sheets1 of 5

League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie B matches this season: Vicenza Virtus 11, Carrarese 11.

Vicenza Virtus scored 122224
Carrarese conceded 141034

Vicenza Virtus score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Carrarese have let in 4 there.

Carrarese scored 200313
Vicenza Virtus conceded 263517

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Vicenza Virtus

  • vs Cesena28 Nov · Serie Bwin 40%
  • at Padova5 Dec · Serie Bwin 25%
  • vs Mantova8 Dec · Serie Bwin 33%
  • at Sampdoria12 Dec · Serie Bwin 29%

Carrarese

  • vs Juve Stabia28 Nov · Serie Bwin 34%
  • at Cesena5 Dec · Serie Bwin 30%
  • vs Pisa8 Dec · Serie Bwin 34%
  • at Cremonese12 Dec · Serie Bwin 22%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.