Padova
vs
Sampdoria
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Padova 1–0 Sampdoria
The model makes it 45% Padova, 30% draw, 25% Sampdoria — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Padova 1.39, Sampdoria 0.89.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Padova's rating is built from 49 Serie B matches and Sampdoria's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Padova are 10th on 15 points from 11 games; Sampdoria are 15th on 11 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Padova are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Empoli.
- Sampdoria have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Carrarese.
- Last 2 meetings: Sampdoria 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Sampdoria 1–0 Padova.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Padova vs Sampdoria
Has the model earned this number?
Padova at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Padova vs Sampdoria
Padova
Serie B
- D2-2Empoli7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Catanzaro31 October 2026
- W2-0Sudtirol27 October 2026
- W1-0away to Avellino24 October 2026
- L1-2Virtus Entella17 October 2026
Sampdoria
Serie B
- W1-0away to Carrarese8 November 2026
- W2-0Virtus Entella31 October 2026
- L0-2away to Ascoli27 October 2026
- D1-1away to Sudtirol24 October 2026
- L1-2Arezzo18 October 2026
What these results say
- Padova scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sampdoria scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sampdoria had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Padova | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 15 |
| 15 | Sampdoria | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Padova
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
Sampdoria
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 31% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Padova vs Sampdoria
- 14 February 2026Sampdoria 1–0 PadovaSerie B
- 20 December 2025Padova 1–1 SampdoriaSerie B
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Padova a 0.2% chance of the title and Sampdoria 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Padova the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Padova against 0.89 for Sampdoria. Padova's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.48 for Sampdoria.
How the model reaches 45% for Padova to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Padova to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Padova's ratings add 3 points and Sampdoria's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level40%−2
- Padova's ratings43%+3
- Sampdoria's ratings45%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Padova at home · Sampdoria away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Padova 11, Sampdoria 11.
Padova score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Sampdoria have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Padova
- at Modena28 Nov · Serie Bwin 21%
- vs Vicenza Virtus5 Dec · Serie Bwin 49%
- at Benevento8 Dec · Serie Bwin 25%
- at Juve Stabia12 Dec · Serie Bwin 26%
Sampdoria
- vs Cremonese28 Nov · Serie Bwin 31%
- at Pisa5 Dec · Serie Bwin 21%
- vs Modena8 Dec · Serie Bwin 27%
- vs Vicenza Virtus12 Dec · Serie Bwin 44%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.