Palermo
vs
Sudtirol
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Palermo 2–0 Sudtirol
The model makes it 58% Palermo, 24% draw, 18% Sudtirol — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Palermo 1.94, Sudtirol 0.86.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Palermo: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Palermo's rating is built from 51 Serie B matches and Sudtirol's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Palermo are top on 27 points from 11 games; Sudtirol are 12th on 15 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Palermo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Ascoli.
- Sudtirol have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Pisa.
- Last 6 meetings: Palermo 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended Palermo 3–0 Sudtirol.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Palermo vs Sudtirol
Has the model earned this number?
Palermo at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Palermo vs Sudtirol
Palermo
Serie B
- D1-1away to Ascoli6 November 2026
- W3-1Vicenza Virtus1 November 2026
- D3-3away to Pisa28 October 2026
- W2-1Carrarese25 October 2026
- W2-0away to Mantova17 October 2026
Sudtirol
Serie B
- D2-2away to Pisa7 November 2026
- D1-1Cesena31 October 2026
- L0-2away to Padova27 October 2026
- D1-1Sampdoria24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Juve Stabia18 October 2026
What these results say
- Palermo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Palermo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Palermo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sudtirol did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sudtirol conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 13 | +12 | 27 |
| 12 | Sudtirol | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Palermo
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 55% today
Sudtirol
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Palermo vs Sudtirol
- 21 February 2026Palermo 3–0 SudtirolSerie B
- 14 September 2025Sudtirol 0–2 PalermoSerie B
- 1 May 2025Palermo 1–2 SudtirolSerie B
- 30 September 2024Sudtirol 1–3 PalermoSerie B
- 10 May 2024Sudtirol 0–1 PalermoSerie B
- 1 October 2023Palermo 2–1 SudtirolSerie B
Leading scorers: Palermo and Sudtirol
Palermo
GoalsAssists
- D. Johnsen75
- D. Vavassori61
Sudtirol
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Palermo a 54.5% chance of the title and Sudtirol 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Palermo the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Palermo against 0.86 for Sudtirol. Palermo's attack/defence rating is 0.99/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.32 for Sudtirol.
How the model reaches 58% for Palermo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Palermo to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Palermo's ratings add 9 points and Sudtirol's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Palermo's ratings51%+9
- Sudtirol's ratings58%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Palermo at home · Sudtirol away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Palermo 11, Sudtirol 11.
Palermo score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Sudtirol have let in 0 there.
Sudtirol score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Palermo have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Palermo
- vs Benevento28 Nov · Serie Bwin 51%
- at Hellas Verona5 Dec · Serie Bwin 35%
- vs Cremonese8 Dec · Serie Bwin 50%
- at Cesena12 Dec · Serie Bwin 47%
Sudtirol
- vs Mantova28 Nov · Serie Bwin 36%
- at Avellino5 Dec · Serie Bwin 25%
- at Empoli8 Dec · Serie Bwin 32%
- vs Hellas Verona12 Dec · Serie Bwin 32%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.